- Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (+140) visit Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (-165) on Saturday, March 16, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Jupiter, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 7-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 6-8 ATS.
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +140 |
| Marlins | -165 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.2% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.05 Units / 79% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.85 Units / 95% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 away games (+2.25 Units / 112% ROI)
- Johan Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Jonathan Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Phillies are 10-6 against the Run Line (+2.64 Units / 12.38% ROI).
- 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.67% ROI
- 6-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.55 Units / -20.41% ROI
- 9-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.46 Units / 13.76% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Marlins are 6-8 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -13.25% ROI).
- 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.25 Units / -38.77% ROI
- 4-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.22 Units / -45.41% ROI
- 10-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.88 Units / 39.46% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kolby Allard has limited playing time.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.8 MPH against his curves since the 2021 season (91 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 87.3
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 22% (20/91) against Trevor Rogers on curveballs since the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 96th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers’ highest spin rate on curveballs inside since the 2021 season is 2370.0 RPM — 3rd fewest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 2801.0
Trevor Rogers’ highest spin rate on changeups since the 2021 season is 2230.0 RPM — 8th fewest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 2627.6
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 56-38 (.596) after a home win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Phillies are 27-115 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies were 19-11 (.633) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Phillies are 19-117 (.140) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 21-73 (.223) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are 43-6 (.878) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Marlins were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Marlins were 24-3 (.889) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .790 (3,042 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Phillies hitters struck out 471 times in 1,869 PA’s (25%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters slugged .438 in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Phillies won 60% of their home games in the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters had 149 extra-base hits out of 547 total hits (just 27%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters had 105 extra-base hits out of 357 total hits (just 29%) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% in close and late situations in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies allowed 1.15 runs per game (187/162) in late innings in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.36.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 2,950 times since last season — 3rd fewest in MLB.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Calvin Faucher (Miami Marlins): Biceps, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Finger, Day-To-Day
- Jazz Chisholm (Miami Marlins): Toe, Out
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, Out
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, Out
- Brandon Marsh (Philadelphia Phillies): Knee, Out
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, Day-To-Day
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