- Arsenal is a -0.5 goal favorite at Chelsea.
- Arsenal earned all three points in both head-to-head meetings last season.
- Chelsea has stumbled early and currently sits 11th in EPL table.
Ahead of this weekend’s marquee Premier League clash, I’m set to provide an Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction.
Both teams arrive fresh off the international break with positive performances before the English top flight broke.
Visitors Arsenal earned a home win against title favorites Manchester City in their last fixture while Chelsea captured a 4-1 win over Burnley.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Saturday’s encounter at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea vs. Arsenal Odds
- Chelsea to Win: +200
- Arsenal to Win: +130
- Chelsea vs. Arsenal Draw: +240
- The Chelsea vs. Arsenal Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Chelsea vs. Arsenal Prediction
Based on recent trends, the spread prediction for Chelsea vs. Arsenal is Chelsea Draw, No Bet (+115).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
So much of Arsenal’s success this season has come via earning spot kicks.
Manager Mikel Arteta’s side has generated 14.9 expected goals in their first eight matches. However, they’ve simultaneously created only 11.2 non-penalty expected goals, per fbref.com.
At 11.2 non-penalty expected goals, Arsenal ranks 12th in the Premier League.
Now they travel to Stamford Bridge to face a Chelsea defense third in non-penalty expected goals.
Although the competition does leave a touch to be desired, Chelsea held Liverpool and Aston Villa to 2.3 combined expected goals.
Conversely, this Chelsea offense enters Saturday’s match as a major positive regression candidate.
This season, manager Mauricio Pochettino’s side has scored 11 goals off 15 expected, the second-largest underperformance in the Premier League.
Although Arsenal’s defense is a tough nut to crack – they sit second in non-penalty expected goals – they’ve yet to face a true road test.
Lastly, oddsmakers are pricing these teams as if there’s a big gap between them, but I’m not seeing it.
Without adjusting for strength of schedule, Chelsea has a +6.2 non-penalty expected goal differential, while Arsenal owns a +4.7 non-penalty expected goal differential.
For those reasons, take Chelsea to do no worse than a point at +105 or better.
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