- Arsenal is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
- Arsenal have won three of the last four against the Seagulls.
- I predict Brighton will cover the spread and could win outright.
Matchday 3 of the Premier League season begins with Arsenal hosting Brighton at the Emirates.
Both teams are perfect through two matches.
Arsenal moved to 2-0-0 with a 2-0 win at Aston Villa on Matchday 2, while Brighton’s late winner against Manchester United secured all three points.
Last year, Arsenal finished 2-0 against Brighton with zero concessions.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Arsenal vs. Brighton Odds, Premier League
- Arsenal Moneyline: -300
- Brighton Moneyline: +750
- Draw Moneyline: +450
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-120), No (-120)
Arsenal vs. Brighton Prediction: Spread and Moneyline
I predict Brighton will cover the spread (+1.5, -120) and win outright (+750).
Don’t let Arsenal’s scoreline against Villa fool you: metrics rated Mikel Arteta’s side as the inferior team.
Arsenal lost the expected goals battle 1.28-0.87 and the psxG battle 1.05 to 0.9, per fotmob.com.
If Ollie Watkins’ 0.8 psxG chance on 54 minutes isn’t saved, the match likely plays out much differently and Arsenal probably opens a smaller favorite against Brighton.
Even if that weren’t the case, Brighton matches two historically profitable systems. One suggests a spread bet, with the over recommending a moneyline wager.
Since 2012, underdogs at +1.5, +2 or +2.5 are 72.8% ATS, assuming three factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between -7 and -1
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between +0 and +3
- The game was played in August, December, January or May
Since 2022, these underdogs are 28-7-1 ATS.
In terms of the moneyline system, a lot of the same principles still apply.
Since 2012, dogs between +203 and +961 in August or November-January are 27.5% SU, assuming three factors:
- The favorite’s previous game margin is between -3 and +5
- The previous head-to-head result is between -9 and -1
- The underdog’s previous game margin is between -1 and +2
Brighton’s implied probability to win outright is only 11.8%, so there’s a healthy margin based on this system.
Add in Brighton have won at Arsenal not too long ago — a 3-0 win in May 2023 — and I’ll back the Seagulls to win and cover.
Arsenal Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 at Aston Villa: 2-0, W
- Aug. 17 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W
- Aug. 11 vs. Lyon: 2-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 7 vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 4-1, W (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Liverpool: 1-2, L (Friendly)
Brighton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 vs. Manchester United: 2-1, W
- Aug. 17 at Everton: 3-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Villarreal: 4-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at QPR: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- July 28 at Tokyo Verdy: 4-2, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Arsenal odds and Brighton and Hove Albion odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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