- Arsenal is a -2.5-goal favorite against Everton.
- Arsenal won 1-0 at Goodison Park, and now need a win and help for a shot at the title.
- Why bettors should expect Everton to finish with a low corner count.
Needing a win and help from West Ham United to win the title, Arsenal welcome Everton to the Emirates Stadium on the final day of the Premier League season.
Following Manchester City’s midweek win against Tottenham, Arsenal are prohibitive underdogs (+900) to deny City a fourth consecutive title.
To win the title, they’ll need to beat Everton — a side they dispatched 1-0 earlier this season — and hope City fail to win against West Ham United.
With that established, here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Odds – Arsenal vs. Everton
- Arsenal Moneyline: -550
- Everton Moneyline: +1400
- Draw Moneyline: +675
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-125)
Premier League Prediction – Arsenal vs. Everton
LEAN Everton Under 1.5 Corners (+130)
Only one side has any motivation for this match: Arsenal.
Accordingly, bettors should expect the hosts to dominate the ball and limit their opponents to a low corner count.
Earlier this season, Everton traveled to Manchester City and accomplished virtually nothing offensively.
Manager Sean Dyche’s side notched only 0.3 expected goals on five shots, one shot on target and amassed exactly zero corners.
Further, although they managed 52 attacking third touches, Everton converted only five of those into penalty area touches.
Additionally, Arsenal generally don’t allow many corner kicks at home. Sample their first 18 home matches, and bettors will find they’ve allowed only 2.78 corners per game.
That’s good for second-best in the league, behind only Manchester City (2.5). Plus, the last time these sides played, Everton notched a single corner at home.
Expand the sample to include three Everton road matches against sides that allow under 3.5 corners per game at home, and bettors will find they’ve notched only seven total corners.
Without adjusting for opponent quality, Everton generally see a dropoff in corner kicks away from home. To date, they average 0.06 fewer corners on the road.
Arsenal have shown they can limit corner attempts when they dominate the ball.
In 16 games this season where Arsenal controlled more than 60% possession, opponents average only 2.81 corners per game.
Expand the sample to consider games where Arsenal have more than 51% possession, and bettors will find they’ve held 14 of 27 under 2.5 corners.
In their last four games where they’ve controlled a majority of possession, three teams have finished under 1.5 corners.
As a result, take the under on Everton in a meaningless match for the Toffees.
Arsenal Form
May 12 at Manchester United: 1-0, W
May 4 vs. Bournemouth: 3-0, W
April 28 at Tottenham: 3-2, W
April 23 vs. Chelsea: 5-0, W
April 20 at Wolves: 2-0, W
Everton Form
May 11 vs. Sheffield United: 1-0, W
May 3 at Luton Town: 1-1, D
April 27 vs. Brentford: 1-0, W
April 24 vs. Liverpool: 2-0, W
April 21 vs. Nottingham Forest: 2-0, W
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Apr. 22 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Apr. 23 | 3 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-12-3 | 67 | 34 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Manchester City | 17-7-9 | 58 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-8 | 57 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-11-11 | 44 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-15-6 | 45.5% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-4 | 57.6% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 11-22-0 | 33.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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