Arsenal vs. Southampton Prediction, Odds: EPL Betting

min read
Arsenal's manager Mikel Arteta speaks to the players while Gabriel Jesus, right, gestures to the crowd during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Brighton and Hove Albion at the Emirates Stadium in London, Sunday, Dec. 17, 2023.
(Ian Walton/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Oct 04, 2024, 10:08 AM
  • Arsenal is a -2.5-goal favorite against Southampton.
  • Arsenal has won 12 straight matches against newly-promoted teams.
  • My Arsenal vs. Southampton prediction comes from the match prop markets.

Arsenal look to make it three home wins in a week as they prepare to face Southampton on Saturday.ย 

Mikel Artetaโ€™s side captured a 2-0 midweek win over Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League. That came after a Saturday 4-2 home win against Leicester City.ย 

Southamptonโ€™s struggles continued on Monday with a 3-1 defeat at Bournemouth. That leaves Russell Martinโ€™s side on one point through six matches.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs. Southampton prediction.ย 

Premier League Odds: Arsenal vs. Southampton

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -700
  • Southampton Moneyline: +1550
  • Draw Moneyline: +850
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-125)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (+115), No (-165)

Premier League Betting: Arsenal vs. Southampton Prediction

My Arsenal vs. Southampton prediction is Arsenal Moneyline: First 30 Minutes (-110).ย 

The short rest scenario for the hosts is slightly worrisome, but theyโ€™ve started strong in each of their last two matches.ย 

Against Leicester City, Artetaโ€™s side won the first 30 minutes 1-0. In terms of post-shot expected goals, Arsenal eased past the Foxes 1.02-0, per fotmob.com.ย 

That positive streak continued in the midweek against PSG.ย 

Arsenal held a 1-0 lead after the first 30 minutes and won the post-shot xG battle 0.9-0.ย 

Now they get a Southampton side prone to surrendering early goals.ย 

The Saints fell behind 1-0 after 30 minutes at Bournemouth on Monday and trailed 3-0 at halftime.ย 

In terms of the first 30 minutes, Southampton lost the post-shot expected goals battle 0.67-0.09 at the Vitality Stadium.ย 

Thatโ€™s generally indicative of Southamptonโ€™s road record in the opening 30 minutes.ย 

In two road matches played at 11v11, Southampton has a -0.77 post-shot xGDiff in the first 30 minutes.ย 

However, Arsenal is by far Southamptonโ€™s most difficult opponent to date.ย 

The last time they faced a Big Six club โ€“ at home to Manchester United โ€“ Southampton posted a -0.8 post-shot xGDiff inside the opening 30 minutes.ย 

Away from home, expect the Saints to fall behind early against one of the leagueโ€™s best pressing teams.ย 

Arsenal Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Oct. 1 vs. PSG: 2-0, W (Champions League)
  • Sept. 28 vs. Leicester City: 4-2, W
  • Sept. 25 vs. Bolton: 5-1, W (EFL Cup)
  • Sept. 22 at Manchester City: 2-2, Dย 
  • Sept. 19 at Atalanta: 0-0, D (Champions League)

Southampton Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Sept. 30 at Bournemouth: 1-3, L
  • Sept. 21 vs. Ipswich Town: 1-1, D
  • Sept. 17 at Everton: 1-1, D (EFL Cup, Everton Advance)
  • Sept. 14 vs. Manchester United: 0-3, L
  • Aug. 31 at Brentford: 1-3, L

EPL Betting at BetMGM

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Whether you’re looking for futures, over/under totals, or player props, there’s something for everyone. Check out the soccer betting page today to get closer to the action as teams battle for the Premier League Trophy.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.