- Arsenal is a -2.5-goal favorite against Southampton.
- Arsenal has won 12 straight matches against newly-promoted teams.
- My Arsenal vs. Southampton prediction comes from the match prop markets.
Arsenal look to make it three home wins in a week as they prepare to face Southampton on Saturday.
Mikel Arteta’s side captured a 2-0 midweek win over Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League. That came after a Saturday 4-2 home win against Leicester City.
Southampton’s struggles continued on Monday with a 3-1 defeat at Bournemouth. That leaves Russell Martin’s side on one point through six matches.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs. Southampton prediction.
Premier League Odds: Arsenal vs. Southampton
- Arsenal Moneyline: -700
- Southampton Moneyline: +1550
- Draw Moneyline: +850
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-125)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (+115), No (-165)
Premier League Betting: Arsenal vs. Southampton Prediction
My Arsenal vs. Southampton prediction is Arsenal Moneyline: First 30 Minutes (-110).
The short rest scenario for the hosts is slightly worrisome, but they’ve started strong in each of their last two matches.
Against Leicester City, Arteta’s side won the first 30 minutes 1-0. In terms of post-shot expected goals, Arsenal eased past the Foxes 1.02-0, per fotmob.com.
That positive streak continued in the midweek against PSG.
Arsenal held a 1-0 lead after the first 30 minutes and won the post-shot xG battle 0.9-0.
Now they get a Southampton side prone to surrendering early goals.
The Saints fell behind 1-0 after 30 minutes at Bournemouth on Monday and trailed 3-0 at halftime.
In terms of the first 30 minutes, Southampton lost the post-shot expected goals battle 0.67-0.09 at the Vitality Stadium.
That’s generally indicative of Southampton’s road record in the opening 30 minutes.
In two road matches played at 11v11, Southampton has a -0.77 post-shot xGDiff in the first 30 minutes.
However, Arsenal is by far Southampton’s most difficult opponent to date.
The last time they faced a Big Six club – at home to Manchester United – Southampton posted a -0.8 post-shot xGDiff inside the opening 30 minutes.
Away from home, expect the Saints to fall behind early against one of the league’s best pressing teams.
Arsenal Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 1 vs. PSG: 2-0, W (Champions League)
- Sept. 28 vs. Leicester City: 4-2, W
- Sept. 25 vs. Bolton: 5-1, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 22 at Manchester City: 2-2, D
- Sept. 19 at Atalanta: 0-0, D (Champions League)
Southampton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 30 at Bournemouth: 1-3, L
- Sept. 21 vs. Ipswich Town: 1-1, D
- Sept. 17 at Everton: 1-1, D (EFL Cup, Everton Advance)
- Sept. 14 vs. Manchester United: 0-3, L
- Aug. 31 at Brentford: 1-3, L
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