- Aston Villa is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Bournemouth.
- The home team has won each of Bournemouth's last four EPL matches.
- My Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth prediction is for Bournemouth to cover the spread.
Fresh off a midweek Champions League home win, Aston Villa welcomes Bournemouth to Villa Park on Saturday.
Villa have two straight wins and are unbeaten in nine across all competitions. Last weekend, Villa dispatched Fulham 3-1 and followed it with a 2-0 home win against Bologna.
Bournemouth captured a 2-0 home win over Arsenal the previous weekend, though they were aided by a red card. Currently, Bournemouth sit 11th in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth prediction.
Premier League Odds: Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | +0.5 (-110) | 2.5 (-175) | +280 |
| Aston Villa | -0.5 (-120) | 2.5 (+120) | -115 |
| Draw | +290 |
Premier League Betting: Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth Prediction
My Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth prediction is the Bournemouth Spread (+0.5, -110) with a sprinkle on the Bournemouth Moneyline (+280).
Villa are running such a risky strategy where they constantly fall behind and pull victories out of nowhere.
In their last five league games, Villa have conceded first four times. The only time they didn’t was a 0-0 draw.
Somehow, Unai Emery’s side has captured three wins and a draw from those four games. That’s simply an unsustainable strategy.
This season, Bournemouth have recorded strong attacking metrics as an underdog.
Even if you throw out the match against Arsenal, Bournemouth created 1.7 xG per 90 and 1.7 post-shot xG per 90 against Newcastle, Chelsea and Liverpool.
They also dominated Villa when they possessed a full lineup last season.
Albeit at home, Bournemouth drew 2-2. However, they won the post-shot xG battle 3-0.9, per fotmob.com.
While Villa perform markedly better at home, history suggests this is a bad spot for the hosts.
Not only do Villa have a rest disadvantage against Bournemouth, but Bournemouth matches a number of systems.
First, half-goal underdogs in games 2-12 are 90-35 ATS (72%), assuming the opponent closed a road dog in their last game.
Additionally, when both the dog and favorite are coming off wins, history says bet the dog.
Half-goal dogs off a win by 1-3 goals facing a favorite off a win by 1-5 goals are 47-25 ATS (65%), assuming the dog lost the last meeting.
Those half-goal dogs are also 22-54 SU for a 29% return on investment.
One other system suggests a bet on the Bournemouth moneyline.
Road dogs at +205 or higher in games 1-18 are 28-87 SU, assuming three factors:
- The opponent’s previous game margin falls between +1 and +3
- The underdog’s previous head-to-head result falls between -2 and +0
- The dog’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +2
For those reasons, I’ll take Bournemouth to end Villa’s unbeaten run and do no worse than a result.
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