- Aston Villa is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Crystal Palace.
- The home team is 4-0 SU in the previous four head-to-head meetings.
- My Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
Seeking an end to a four-match winless run in all competitions, Aston Villa hosts Crystal Palace out of the international break.
Villa have dropped consecutive league matches against Tottenham and Liverpool, falling to ninth in the league table. In good news, Villa is unbeaten in four at home.
Palace fell 2-0 at home against Fulham before the break, ending a three-match unbeaten run in all competitions. In a recent League Cup tie against Villa, Palace earned a 2-1 win.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace prediction.
Premier League Odds: Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | +0.5 (+125) | 2.5 (-145) | +425 |
| Aston Villa | -0.5 (-185) | 2.5 (+105) | -165 |
| Draw | +310 |
Premier League Betting: Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace Prediction
Based on Villa’s strong record at home and Crystal Palace’s weak road metrics, my Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace prediction is an SGP: Aston Villa Moneyline & Over 1.5 Goals (-120).
Villa are a surprisingly short price in this match when you consider their strong home record.
Unai Emery’s side rates out as a positive regression candidate ahead of this match. They own a +0 home goal differential compared to a +3 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Some of that regression should come against Palace, which has run lucky away from home.
In matches at Brentford, Chelsea, and Nottingham Forest, Palace owns a -2 goal differential vs. a -4 post-shot expected goal differential.
Plus, Palace struggled immensely in their last trip to Villa Park. A September 2023 league meeting saw Palace lose 3-1 to Villa with a -2.04 xGDiff, per fotmob.com.
Manager Oliver Glasner’s side is also running into a Villa side that excels as home favorites off a loss.
Since appointing Emery, Villa are 6-1 SU at home off a loss and 12-3 SU off a loss OR draw.
History also tells us favorites excel with extra time to prepare.
Since 2012, home favorites between -245 and +112 are 96-38 with either nine, 14, or 15 days between games, including 27-8 over the previous four seasons.
When those teams fall between -245 and -165: 27-7 SU, including 7-2 since 2020.
Add in the fact Villa have dropped two straight in all competitions to Palace, and I’ll pair the Villa moneyline with over 1.5 goals, which has cashed in all but one Villa match this season.
