Liverpool vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Odds, Pick | EPL

min read
Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins celebrates after scoring his second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Aston Villa at Craven cottage stadium in London, Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.
(Alastair Grant/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 10, 2024, 2:08 PM
  • Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against Aston Villa.
  • Visitors earned a 3-0 home win the last time these sides played.
  • Why bettors should expect goals to flow at Villa Park.

For Monday Night Football (Premier League version), Liverpool travels to Birmingham to face Aston Villa. 

Liverpool’s title hopes could be dashed by kickoff if City and Arsenal both win. Still, they enter Monday’s game fresh off a 4-2 win over Tottenham. 

As for Aston Villa, they’re in a bit of crisis mode as they attempt to hang onto the final Champions League spot. 

Entering Monday’s game, Villa are winless in their last four in all competitions. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Monday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Aston Villa

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -140
  • Aston Villa Moneyline: +300
  • Draw Moneyline: +350
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-135/-105)

Premier League Prediction – Liverpool vs. Aston Villa

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-135) 

Right now, the Aston Villa defense can’t stop anyone, even at home. In their last eight Premier League fixtures at Villa Park, they’ve surrendered 1.87 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

They’ve particularly struggled at home against competent attacks. This calendar year, Villa have played four attacks averaging at least 1.5 non-penalty xG. 

Sample only the minutes played at 11v11 and bettors will find Villa allowed 1.7 post-shot expected goals. 

In those four contests, they’ve allowed all four teams to score at least two goals with three reaching three or more goals. 

Plus, Villa struggled immensely the last time they played Liverpool. Albeit away from home, they conceded 2.5 expected goals. 

This season, Liverpool sits second in road expected goals and has bossed bad defenses away from Anfield. 

In nine road matches against sides allowing more than 1.45 npxGA per 90 minutes, Liverpool has created 1.85 npxGA per 90 minutes. 

All that said, don’t count out this Villa attack. They’ve scored at least once in all home matches bar one and get a Liverpool defense that’s markedly worse away from home. 

The Reds have kept only four clean sheets away from home, but three of those opponents generated at least one expected goal. 

Entering Monday’s match, Liverpool have allowed 1.39 xGA per 90 on the road compared to 0.95 at Anfield. 

In their last five road matches, they’ve surrendered 1.5 psxG without facing a single side inside the top-eight in that category. 

This game also matches a historically profitable system. Since 2012-13, overs in games featuring a home underdog are 48-25-1, assuming three factors:

  • The away team’s average number of goals is between 1.4 and 4
  • The closing total is 2.5, 3 or 3.5
  • The home team’s previous over/under margin is between -2 and -3.5

Liverpool Form 

May 5 vs. Tottenham: 4-2, W

April 27 at West Ham: 2-2, D

April 24 at Everton: 0-2, L

April 21 at Fulham: 3-1, W

April 18 at Atalanta: 1-0, W (Europa League) 

Aston Villa Form

May 9 at Olympiacos: 0-2, L (Europa Conference League)

May 5 at Brighton: 0-1, L

May 2 vs. Olympiacos: 2-4, L (Europa Conference League)

April 27 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

April 21 vs. Bournemouth: 3-1, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.