Aston Villa vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds: EPL Betting

Sunday’s marquee Premier League fixture sees Aston Villa welcome Manchester United to Villa Park. 

Villa’s two-match winning streak ended on Matchday 6 at Ipswich Town. Villa took a 2-1 lead into the break but settled for a point in a 2-2 draw. 

Manchester United fell 3-0 to Tottenham on Matchday 6. That leaves them with a three-match winless run in all competitions. 

Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Aston Villa vs. Manchester United prediction. 

Premier League Odds: Aston Villa vs. Manchester United

• Aston Villa Moneyline: +120
• Manchester United Moneyline: +200
• Draw Moneyline: +270
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+130/-185)
• Both Teams to Score: Yes (-210), No (+145)

Premier League Betting: Aston Villa vs. Manchester United Prediction

My Aston Villa vs. Manchester United prediction is a Same Game Parlay: Aston Villa Spread (+0.5) and Both Teams to Score (-105). 

United may have won both meetings last season, but this is a terrible spot for Erik ten Hag’s side. 

United will travel to Portugal for a Thursday Europa League match, while Villa hosted Bayern Munich on Wednesday at home. That gives them a notable rest edge. 

Even though United earned six points from six against Villa, it was generally undeserved. 

United posted a +2 goal differential compared to a -1.17 expected goal differential and a -0.6 post-shot expected goal differential. 

Just at Aston Villa, United won 2-1 but lost the xG battle 2.4-1.8 and the post-shot xG battle 2.6-1.7, per fotmob.com. 

United is also 0-2 SU as an underdog this season, so I’ll take Villa to earn at least a point on Sunday. 

At the same time, I agree with the high odds on both teams to score in this match. 

Under Unai Emery, Villa have an outstanding record scoring at home. In 36 fixtures at Villa Park under Emery, Villa have scored at least once 33 times. 

But their defensive record without Boubacar Kamara leaves much to be desired. 

In their last 24 matches without Kamara, Villa have kept only two clean sheets. Each of those were undeserved based on post-shot expected goals. 

With both sides playing on short rest, add both teams to score as the second leg of this same game parlay. 

Aston Villa Record, Last 5 Matches

• Oct. 2 vs. Bayern Munich
• Sept. 29 at Ipswich Town: 2-2, D
• Sept. 24 at Wycombe: 2-1, W (EFL Cup)
• Sept. 21 vs. Wolves: 3-1, W
• Sept. 17 at Young Boys: 3-0, W (Champions League)

Manchester United Record, Last 5 Matches

• Oct. 3 at FC Porto
• Sept. 29 vs. Tottenham: 0-3, L
• Sept. 25 vs. FC Twente: 1-1, D (Europa League)
• Sept. 21 at Crystal Palace: 0-0, D
• Sept. 17 vs. Barnsley: 7-0, W (EFL Cup)