- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Tottenham.
- Hosts Villa earned a win over Spurs in the previous head-to-head meeting.
- Villa matches a pair of historically profitable betting systems.
Before Sunday’s English Premier League match at Villa Park, I’m here to provide an Aston Villa vs. Tottenham prediction.
Both teams enter this game in good form – Villa captured a 3-2 road win over Luton Town last weekend, while Spurs came from behind to win 3-1 against Crystal Palace.
In the previous head-to-head meeting between these sides, Villa earned a 2-1 win, their third straight win over Tottenham.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my betting prediction for Sunday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Tottenham
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +135
- Tottenham Moneyline: +160
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-115/-120)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Tottenham
Aston Villa Draw, No Bet (-135)
It’s not the best spot for Aston Villa – they face a Thursday trip to Ajax Amsterdam – but history says they do no worse than a draw.
I make that assessment because of two historically profitable systems. One says to bet Villa, while the other suggests a fade of Tottenham.
Beginning with the former, history says short home favorites that won the previous meeting tend to do well.
Since the 2021-22 season, home favorites between a PK and -1 with a win percentage north of 45% that won by between one and two goals in the previous meeting are 69.2% ATS.
Shrink the sample down to this season and the previous campaign and bettors will find those home teams are 26-8 ATS.
As for the latter system, road dogs rarely earn outright wins after a win as home favorites. The kicker? They need to have lost the previous game.
Since the 2021-22 season, road dogs off an outright win as home favorites that lost the previous head-to-head meeting are 9-54 SU against the three-way moneyline.
When their opponent is off a win? 1-22 SU.
Just this season, those teams have captured only one outright win in 17 tries, including 0-5 with their opponent off a win.
Plus, Villa have one of the best home records in the Premier League under manager Unai Emery.
Since appointing the former Arsenal boss, Villa is 17-7 ATS as home favorites and own a +0.96 expected goal differential per 90 at home this season.
Comparatively, Tottenham own a -0.22 xGDiff per 90 away from home this season and have won only five of 12 matches.
As a result, I’ll take Villa to do no worse than a point at home, even on short rest.
Aston Villa Form
March 2 at Luton Town: 3-2, W
Feb. 24 vs. Nottingham Forest: 4-2, W
Feb. 17 at Fulham: 2-1, W
Feb. 11 vs. Manchester United: 1-2, L
Feb. 7 vs. Chelsea: 1-3, L (FA Cup)
Tottenham Form
March 2 vs. Crystal Palace: 3-1, W
Feb. 17 vs. Wolves: 1-2, L
Feb. 10 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W
Feb. 3 at Everton: 2-2, D
Jan. 31 vs. Brentford: 3-2, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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