- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
- Villa has dropped points in two straight EPL fixtures.
- The system that says one team is underrated in the market.
Before Saturday’s standalone Premier League fixture at Villa Park, I’m set to offer an Aston Villa vs. Wolves prediction.
Hosts Villa enter this match in less-than-desirable league form. Following a 3-2 road win at Luton Town, Villa lost 4-0 to Tottenham and drew 1-1 with West Ham.
As for Wolves, they’ve captured outright wins in three of their last four games.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for this midlands clash.
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Wolves
- Aston Villa Moneyline: -155
- Wolves Moneyline: +375
- Draw Moneyline: +320
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Wolves
Aston Villa Moneyline (-155)
History says this is a brilliant buy-low spot on Aston Villa, who have excelled under Unai Emery following a non-win.
That rings especially true when Villa are home favorites. Since appointing Emery, Villa is 10-1 straight up as home favorites following a draw or loss.
In six games this season, they’re 5-1 straight up.
Even more profitable is when they’re facing a bad team in such a spot.
Shrink the 11-game sample down to five games against teams with a winning percentage below 39%, and bettors will find Villa is 5-0 SU.
The hosts also match another historically profitable betting system.
Since 2017-18, home favorites that closed as dogs in their last game facing a team that were favorites previously are 26-10 ATS, assuming the spread is between -1 and -2.
Beyond those systems, Villa’s underlying metrics are far superior to Wolves, who won’t have key attackers Hee-Chan Hwang and Pedro Neto for this match.
At home, Villa own a +0.84 expected goal differential per 90 minutes. As for Wolves, they’re at -0.40 xGDiff per 90 on the road, per fbref.com.
Wolves have also run very lucky this season. They enter this match with a -2 goal differential against a -10.3 expected goal differential.
Against a high-powered Villa offense, expect the hosts to capture all three points.
Aston Villa Form
March 17 at West Ham United: 1-1, D
March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)
March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L
March 7 at Ajax: 0-0, D (Europa Conference League)
March 2 at Luton Town: 3-2, W
Wolves Form
March 16 vs. Coventry City: 2-3, L (FA Cup)
March 9 vs. Fulham: 2-1, W
March 2 at Newcastle United: 0-3, L
Feb. 28 vs. Brighton: 1-0, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 25 vs. Sheffield United: 1-0, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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