- Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite at Bournemouth.
- Liverpool bossed the Cherries 3-1 in the last head-to-head meeting.
- Home underdogs Bournemouth match two historically profitable systems.
Before Sunday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide a Bournemouth vs. Liverpool prediction.
Road favorites Liverpool enter this match in good form, having earned wins in four straight matches in all competitions. In terms of their league form, they’re unbeaten in 13 matches.
Regarding Bournemouth, they’ve begun to discover a positive run of form. Prior to a road defeat against Tottenham, they went seven matches unbeaten in the league.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Sunday’s encounter at The Vitality Stadium, along with my best bet for the match.
Bournemouth vs. Liverpool Betting Odds
- Bournemouth to Win: +320
- Liverpool to Win: -140
- Bournemouth vs. Liverpool Draw: +320
- The Bournemouth vs. Liverpool Over/Under is 3.5 Goals
Bournemouth vs. Liverpool Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Bournemouth vs. Liverpool is the Bournemouth Team Total Over 1.5 (+150).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends, and recent player performances.
There’s some complex betting strategy at play here, but the market is underrating the Bournemouth attack.
Since 2017-18, overs are 56.3% in matches featuring home underdogs that average north of 1.4 goals per game while allowing north of 1.6.
That tells me this game features goals, especially when considering Over 3.5 Goals is +110.
From there, I simultaneously believe Liverpool is overvalued in the market.
Since 2017-18, home underdogs in games 20 onward that lost by two or more goals in the first head-to-head meeting are 57.4% ATS.
Additionally, since 2017-18, bettors that fade road favorites priced between -110 and -165 following an outright victory win at a 58% clip.
However, I’m wary of fading a Liverpool team that hasn’t lost in 13 league matches, so the likeliest outcome in this game is a draw.
Rather than backing Bournemouth +0.5 or the draw moneyline, I’ll jump at the opportunity to back Bournemouth’s offense to score two or more goals at +150.
In addition to the system analysis, Liverpool are missing a number of key defensive pieces.
Defenders Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andy Robertson, and Kostas Tsimikas won’t feature on Sunday. Holding midfielder Wataru Endo also isn’t available.
That will severely hamper Liverpool’s defense against a Bournemouth attack in good form.
Since the calendar turned to November, the Cherries are averaging 1.84 expected goals and 1.9 post-shot expected goals in nine full matches.
Over that span, they’ve scored at least once in every match and cleared this number seven times.
Back them to continue their offensive streak at +140 or better.
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