- Brighton is a -0.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
- Brighton blitzed Wolves 4-1 away from home in the last meeting.
- Wolves will play without top scorer Hee Chan-Hwang on Monday.
Before Monday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide a Brighton vs. Wolves prediction.
In terms of their league form, things could be going better for Brighton. They’ve drawn two of the last three matches, with a home win over Tottenham sandwiched in the middle.
As for Wolves, they enter this fixture in great form. Manager Gary O’Neill’s side has earned three league wins on the bounce and beat Brentford at home in the FA Cup on Wednesday.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Monday’s encounter at The American Express Stadium, along with my best bet for the match.
Brighton vs. Wolves Betting Odds
- Brighton to Win: -150
- Wolves to Win: +360
- Brighton vs. Wolves Draw: +320
- The Brighton vs. Wolves Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Brighton vs. Wolves Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Brighton vs. Wolves is the Brighton Moneyline (-150).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
It’s nerve-wracking stepping in front of Wolves, but this qualifies as my favorite bet of the Premier League season thus far.
First and foremost, Brighton matches two historically profitable betting systems.
Teams who won the last head-to-head meeting and are -1 or shorter in the second meeting are 68.7% ATS, assuming the opponent has a win percentage above 40% since 2021-22.
Just this season, those teams are 12-7 ATS in that situation.
Additionally, it’s historically wise to fade road underdogs on a winning streak.
Since 2021-22, home favorites facing a side on a two-plus match winning streak are 61.1% ATS, including 8-2 ATS this season.
When the opponent has a win percentage over 40%, the home favorite’s record rises to 18-9-2 ATS since 2021-22, including 5-2 ATS this season.
That makes it difficult to fade Brighton on Monday, especially given they could return both Julio Enciso and Solly March from injury.
That should aid them against a Wolves defense ripe for negative regression, particularly away from home.
To date, Wolves have conceded 31 goals off 33.4 expected, including 17 goals off 18.4 expected away from home.
Additionally, Wolves won’t have their most prolific scorer for this match.
Striker Hee-Chan Hwang – one of only two Wolves players who has amassed at least five expected goals this season – is playing in the Asian Cup.
Granted, the return of Pedro Neto undoubtedly helps Wolves, but I can’t see them reversing a -1.5 post-shot expected goal differential from the first match.
Back the Seagulls to earn all three points at -165 or better on Monday, or lay a goal at -110 or better.
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