- Bournemouth is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Brighton.
- Brighton has won three of its last four EPL matches as an underdog.
- My Bournemouth vs. Brighton prediction depends on Antoine Semenyo’s status.
A South Coast derby takes place on Saturday at the Vitality Stadium, with Bournemouth hosting Brighton & Hove Albion.
The Cherries fell 3-2 at Brentford before the international break. That ended a three-match unbeaten run for Andoni Iraola’s side, all as underdogs.
Brighton captured an impressive 2-1 win over Manchester City before the break, despite trailing at halftime. Currently, the Seagulls sit sixth in the Premier League table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Brighton prediction.
Premier League Odds: Bournemouth vs. Brighton
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | +0.5 (-175) | 2.5 (-185) | +180 |
| Bournemouth | -0.5 (+120) | 2.5 (+130) | +130 |
| Draw | +270 |
Premier League Betting: Bournemouth vs. Brighton Prediction
If Antoine Semenyo features in Bournemouth’s Starting XI on Saturday, my Bournemouth vs. Brighton prediction is Bournemouth 1H Over 0.5 (-130).
Saturday’s matchup is a favorable one for the Cherries attack.
Brighton’s defense has struggled immensely in the opening frame and actually operates better at a negative gamestate.
According to understat.com, the Seagulls have allowed just over 10 expected goals in the first half compared to 8.91 xGA in the second half.
Although Brighton have allowed only five first-half goals in 11 matches, they’ve generally run lucky in the opening frame.
Fabian Huerzler’s side conceded nine first half goals off 10.06 expected, including a single tally off 2.86 xGA in the opening 15 minutes.
Slightly concerning is that Bournemouth has managed a first-half goal four times in 11 matches. However, they’ve accomplished that feat in consecutive contests.
Last season against Brighton, the Cherries dominated the chance count early and notched a goal inside 30 minutes in both meetings.
While the first-half goal at the Amex proved a lucky one by expected goals, Bournemouth created 1.2 xG at home in April.
But the key to this bet is Semenyo. Without him in the lineup, Bournemouth lose an attacker leading the team in non-penalty xG and tied for the lead in goals.
As a result, I’ll wait for the lineup before making a final decision on this play.
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