- Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
- Both teams earned wins on the last matchday, but Liverpool dominated Brentford at home.
- Hosts Brentford match a number of historically profitable betting systems.
Before Saturdayโs early Premier League kickoff from London, Iโm here to provide a Liverpool vs. Brentford prediction.ย
Both teams enter Saturdayโs match earning all three points in their last match.ย
Liverpool picked up a 3-1 home win over Burnley, while Brentford won 2-0 at Wolves.ย
Hereโs a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturdayโs match.ย
EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Brentford
- Liverpool Moneyline: -165
- Brentford Moneyline: +400
- Draw Moneyline: +340
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)
EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Brentford
Brentford Spread (+0.5, +130) vs. Liverpool | Total Over 3.5 Goals (+115)
This is the โbuild your courageโ bet of this weekโs Premier League slate.ย
Brentford are historically profitable as home underdogs โ theyโre 10-6-1 ATS since earning promotion โ but theyโre 0-3 ATS in that spot this season.ย
However, talisman Ivan Toney featured in only one of those three matches, so itโs reasonable to expect some positive regression with him in the lineup.ย
From there, Brentford matches four historically profitable betting systems. Hereโs a breakdown:
- Since 2017-18, home dogs off a road win with their opponent off a win are 59.4% ATS.
- Since 2014-15, dogs off a win as dogs are 56% ATS in their next game.
- Since 2017-18, home dogs off either a win or draw as underdogs are 57% ATS.
- Since 2017-18, home dogs that lost by at least two goals in their previous head-to-head meeting are 57.8% ATS, assuming the opponent has a win percentage over 35%.ย
Further, Brentford has experienced some bad luck at home this season.ย
Entering Saturdayโs fixture, manager Thomas Frankโs side has a -3 home goal differential compared to a -0.32 non-penalty psxG, per fotmob.com.ย
As a result, Iโll take Brentford to earn their first result as home underdogs this season at +125 or better.
However, Iโll hedge slightly by taking the over โ if Brentford doesnโt win or draw, itโs likely because their defense crumbles.ย
This season, overs have proved especially profitable in matches featuring home underdogs.ย
To date, the over has cashed at a 61% clip in qualifying matches.ย
Shrink the sample down to games where the home team allows at least 1.7 goals per game, and the over is 64%, including 12 straight wins for the over.ย
Brentford were unlucky not to score at Anfield โ they created 1.04 post-shot xG โ but they just allowed 4.33 psxG to Man City last weekend at home.ย
As a result, expect a high-flying affair Saturday in London. Bet the over at +110 or better.ย
Liverpool Formย
Feb. 10 vs. Burnley: 3-1, W
Feb. 4 at Arsenal: 1-3, L
Jan. 31 vs. Chelsea: 4-1, W
Jan. 28 vs. Norwich City: 5-2, W (FA Cup)
Jan. 24 at Fulham: 1-1, D (EFL Cup)
Brentford Form
Feb. 10 at Wolves: 2-0, W
Feb. 5 vs. Man City: 1-3, L
Jan. 31 at Tottenham: 2-3, L
Jan. 20 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W
Jan. 16 at Wolves: 2-3, L (FA Cup)
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Southampton | Manchester United | Sep. 14 | 7:30 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
Brighton & Hove Albion | Ipswich Town | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
Crystal Palace | Leicester City | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
Fulham | West Ham United | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Liverpool | Nottingham Forest | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Anfield |
Manchester City | Brentford | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Aston Villa | Everton | Sep. 14 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
Bournemouth | Chelsea | Sep. 14 | 3:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
Tottenham | Arsenal | Sep. 15 | 9 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Wolves | Newcastle United | Sep. 15 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
Arsenal | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
Newcastle United | 2-1-0 | 7 | 2 |
Brentford | 2-0-1 | 6 | 1 |
Aston Villa | 2-0-1 | 6 | 0 |
Bournemouth | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 1-1-1 | 4 | 3 |
Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
Chelsea | 1-1-1 | 4 | 2 |
Fulham | 1-1-1 | 4 | 0 |
West Ham United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -1 |
Manchester United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -3 |
Leicester City | 0-1-2 | 1 | -2 |
Crystal Palace | 0-1-2 | 1 | -3 |
Ipswich Town | 0-1-2 | 1 | -5 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-2 | 1 | -6 |
Southampton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -4 |
Everton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -8 |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Aston Villa | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Bournemouth | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Brentford | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Chelsea | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Crystal Palace | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Everton | 0-3-0 | .000 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Fulham | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
Ipswich Town | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Leicester City | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Newcastle United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Southampton | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
West Ham United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
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