- Manchester United is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
- United earned a 2-1 comeback win at Old Trafford against Brentford.
- Systems say bettors should look to the over/under for Saturday’s fixture.
Before Saturday’s final Premier League match kicks off from London, I’m set to offer a Manchester United vs. Brentford prediction.
Brentford enter this game desperate for points. They’ve lost four of their last five games and haven’t captured an outright win in the league since February 10.
As for opponents Manchester United, they’ve won two straight and three of their last four in all competitions.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Saturday’s match at the Gtech Community Stadium.
EPL Betting Odds – Manchester United vs. Brentford
- Manchester United Moneyline: +120
- Brentford Moneyline: +200
- Draw Moneyline: +270
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-175/+120)
EPL Prediction – Manchester United vs. Brentford
Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-135)
I’ve debated which team I think gets to two goals here, but history says this match goes over the total.
This Premier League season, the over is 59.3% when the match kicks off after 10 a.m. ET. Plus, Brentford home matches have proved particularly chaotic, with nine of 11 finishing over the total.
Within that system is another profitable occurrence.
Games involving a home underdog allowing north of 1.7 goals per game are 65.6% to the over, including 3-0 when Brentford’s the home team.
That’s because this team is a mess defensively, largely because of countless injuries.
On Saturday, they’ll need to deploy a makeshift defensive line with four injuries/suspensions to their defense.
Although I don’t trust Manchester United’s attack, they’ll have Rasmus Hojlund in the lineup and have looked decent against bad defenses.
In recent trips to Wolves, Luton Town and Aston Villa, they created at least 1.7 expected goals in all three matches.
That said, this is a chance to sell Manchester United’s defense, which qualifies as a negative regression candidate entering this game.
United have conceded 39 goals off 47.4 expected, per fbref.com. Additionally, goalkeeper Andre Onana has stopped four goals over expected. .
Brentford, despite their recent poor run of form, finally has both Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo healthy.
Additionally, they’ve created 1.5 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes this season, including 1.8 in their last home match against Chelsea.
For those reasons, expect ample goals on Saturday.
Manchester United Form
March 17 vs. Liverpool: 4-3, W (FA Cup)
March 9 vs. Everton: 2-0, W
March 3 at Manchester City: 1-3, L
Feb. 28 at Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 24 vs. Fulham: 1-2, L
Brentford Form
March 16 at Burnley: 1-2, L
March 9 at Arsenal: 1-2, L
March 2 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
Feb. 26 at West Ham United: 2-4, L
Feb. 20 at Manchester City: 1-0, L
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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