Manchester United vs. Brentford Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Manchester United's Marcus Rashford during the Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Manchester United at Craven Cottage in London, England, Sunday November 13th, 2022.
(AP Photo/Leila Coker)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 28, 2024, 3:25 PM
  • Manchester United is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
  • United earned a 2-1 comeback win at Old Trafford against Brentford.
  • Systems say bettors should look to the over/under for Saturday’s fixture.

Before Saturday’s final Premier League match kicks off from London, I’m set to offer a Manchester United vs. Brentford prediction. 

Brentford enter this game desperate for points. They’ve lost four of their last five games and haven’t captured an outright win in the league since February 10. 

As for opponents Manchester United, they’ve won two straight and three of their last four in all competitions. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Saturday’s match at the Gtech Community Stadium. 

EPL Betting Odds – Manchester United vs. Brentford

  • Manchester United Moneyline: +120
  • Brentford Moneyline: +200
  • Draw Moneyline: +270
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-175/+120)

EPL Prediction – Manchester United vs. Brentford

Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-135)

I’ve debated which team I think gets to two goals here, but history says this match goes over the total. 

This Premier League season, the over is 59.3% when the match kicks off after 10 a.m. ET. Plus, Brentford home matches have proved particularly chaotic, with nine of 11 finishing over the total. 

Within that system is another profitable occurrence. 

Games involving a home underdog allowing north of 1.7 goals per game are 65.6% to the over, including 3-0 when Brentford’s the home team. 

That’s because this team is a mess defensively, largely because of countless injuries. 

On Saturday, they’ll need to deploy a makeshift defensive line with four injuries/suspensions to their defense. 

Although I don’t trust Manchester United’s attack, they’ll have Rasmus Hojlund in the lineup and have looked decent against bad defenses. 

In recent trips to Wolves, Luton Town and Aston Villa, they created at least 1.7 expected goals in all three matches. 

That said, this is a chance to sell Manchester United’s defense, which qualifies as a negative regression candidate entering this game. 

United have conceded 39 goals off 47.4 expected, per Additionally, goalkeeper Andre Onana has stopped four goals over expected. . 

Brentford, despite their recent poor run of form, finally has both Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo healthy. 

Additionally, they’ve created 1.5 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes this season, including 1.8 in their last home match against Chelsea. 

For those reasons, expect ample goals on Saturday. 

Manchester United Form 

March 17 vs. Liverpool: 4-3, W (FA Cup)

March 9 vs. Everton: 2-0, W

March 3 at Manchester City: 1-3, L

Feb. 28 at Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 24 vs. Fulham: 1-2, L

Brentford Form

March 16 at Burnley: 1-2, L

March 9 at Arsenal: 1-2, L

March 2 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

Feb. 26 at West Ham United: 2-4, L

Feb. 20 at Manchester City: 1-0, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

Whether you’re a first-time bettor, casual fan, or longtime diehard, there are soccer odds for everyone at BetMGM.

Throughout the year, you can view online sports betting opportunities for the Premier League, World Cup, Champions League, and more events around the world.

If you don’t have a sportsbook account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome bonus. And check back for the best sportsbook promotions each day of the year.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.