- Manchester United is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
- United earned a 2-1 comeback win at Old Trafford against Brentford.
- Systems say bettors should look to the over/under for Saturday’s fixture.
Before Saturday’s final Premier League match kicks off from London, I’m set to offer a Manchester United vs. Brentford prediction.Â
Brentford enter this game desperate for points. They’ve lost four of their last five games and haven’t captured an outright win in the league since February 10.Â
As for opponents Manchester United, they’ve won two straight and three of their last four in all competitions.Â
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Saturday’s match at the Gtech Community Stadium.Â
EPL Betting Odds – Manchester United vs. Brentford
- Manchester United Moneyline: +120
- Brentford Moneyline: +200
- Draw Moneyline: +270
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-175/+120)
EPL Prediction – Manchester United vs. Brentford
Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-135)
I’ve debated which team I think gets to two goals here, but history says this match goes over the total.Â
This Premier League season, the over is 59.3% when the match kicks off after 10 a.m. ET. Plus, Brentford home matches have proved particularly chaotic, with nine of 11 finishing over the total.Â
Within that system is another profitable occurrence.Â
Games involving a home underdog allowing north of 1.7 goals per game are 65.6% to the over, including 3-0 when Brentford’s the home team.Â
That’s because this team is a mess defensively, largely because of countless injuries.Â
On Saturday, they’ll need to deploy a makeshift defensive line with four injuries/suspensions to their defense.Â
Although I don’t trust Manchester United’s attack, they’ll have Rasmus Hojlund in the lineup and have looked decent against bad defenses.Â
In recent trips to Wolves, Luton Town and Aston Villa, they created at least 1.7 expected goals in all three matches.Â
That said, this is a chance to sell Manchester United’s defense, which qualifies as a negative regression candidate entering this game.Â
United have conceded 39 goals off 47.4 expected, per fbref.com. Additionally, goalkeeper Andre Onana has stopped four goals over expected. .Â
Brentford, despite their recent poor run of form, finally has both Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo healthy.Â
Additionally, they’ve created 1.5 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes this season, including 1.8 in their last home match against Chelsea.Â
For those reasons, expect ample goals on Saturday.Â
Manchester United FormÂ
March 17 vs. Liverpool: 4-3, W (FA Cup)
March 9 vs. Everton: 2-0, W
March 3 at Manchester City: 1-3, L
Feb. 28 at Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 24 vs. Fulham: 1-2, L
Brentford Form
March 16 at Burnley: 1-2, L
March 9 at Arsenal: 1-2, L
March 2 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
Feb. 26 at West Ham United: 2-4, L
Feb. 20 at Manchester City: 1-0, L
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
West Ham United | Liverpool | Apr. 27 | 7:30 AM | London Stadium |
Fulham | Crystal Palace | Apr. 27 | 10:00 AM | Craven Cottage |
Manchester United | Burnley | Apr. 27 | 10:00 AM | Old Trafford |
Newcastle United | Sheffield United | Apr. 27 | 10:00 AM | St. James' Park |
Wolves | Luton Town | Apr. 27 | 10:00 AM | Molineux |
Everton | Brentford | Apr. 27 | 12:30 PM | Goodison Park |
Aston Villa | Chelsea | Apr. 27 | 3:00 PM | Villa Park |
Bournemouth | Brighton | Apr. 28 | 9:00 AM | Vitality Stadium |
Tottenham | Arsenal | Apr. 28 | 9:00 AM | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Nottingham Forest | Manchester City | Apr. 28 | 11:30 AM | City Ground |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential | Notes |
Arsenal FC | 24-5-5 | 77 | 56 | --- |
Manchester City | 23-7-3 | 76 | 48 | --- |
Liverpool FC | 22-8-4 | 74 | 41 | --- |
Aston Villa FC | 20-6-8 | 66 | 21 | --- |
Tottenham Hotspur | 18-6-8 | 60 | 16 | --- |
Manchester United | 16-5-12 | 53 | 1 | --- |
Newcastle United | 15-5-13 | 50 | 15 | --- |
West Ham United | 13-9-12 | 48 | -9 | --- |
Chelsea FC | 13-8-11 | 47 | 3 | --- |
Bournemouth | 12-9-13 | 45 | -11 | --- |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 11-11-11 | 44 | -2 | --- |
Wolves | 12-7-15 | 43 | -8 | --- |
Fulham FC | 12-6-16 | 42 | -4 | --- |
Crystal Palace | 10-9-15 | 39 | -12 | --- |
Brentford | 9-8-17 | 35 | -7 | --- |
Everton | 11-8-15 | 33 | -11 | 8 Point Deduction |
Nottingham Forest | 7-9-18 | 26 | -18 | 4 Point Deduction |
Luton Town | 6-7-21 | 25 | -28 | --- |
Burnley FC | 5-8-21 | 23 | -32 | --- |
Sheffield United | 3-7-234 | 16 | -59 | --- |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 20-13-1 | .603 | 9-7-1 | .559 | 11-6 | .647 |
Aston Villa | 18-15-1 | .544 | 11-6 | .647 | 7-9-1 | .441 |
Bournemouth | 18-14-2 | .559 | 8-7-2 | .529 | 10-7 | .588 |
Brentford | 13-19-2 | .412 | 6-10-1 | .382 | 7-9-1 | .441 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 13-18-2 | .424 | 7-8-1 | .469 | 6-10-1 | .382 |
Burnley | 16-18 | .471 | 5-12 | .294 | 11-6 | .647 |
Chelsea | 14-18 | .438 | 8-8 | .500 | 6-10 | .375 |
Crystal Palace | 17-17 | .500 | 8-9 | .471 | 9-8 | .529 |
Everton | 16-18 | .471 | 9-8 | .529 | 7-10 | .412 |
Fulham | 17-16-1 | .515 | 10-6-1 | .618 | 7-10 | .412 |
Liverpool | 17-17 | .500 | 9-8 | .529 | 8-9 | .471 |
Luton Town | 21-12-1 | .632 | 12-5 | .706 | 9-7-1 | .559 |
Manchester City | 15-18 | .455 | 7-10 | .412 | 8-8 | .500 |
Manchester United | 15-18 | .455 | 7-9 | .438 | 8-9 | .471 |
Newcastle United | 16-17 | .485 | 11-6 | .647 | 5-11 | .313 |
Nottingham Forest | 14-18-2 | .441 | 5-11-1 | .324 | 9-7-1 | .559 |
Sheffield United | 18-16 | .529 | 9-8 | .529 | 9-8 | .529 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 18-14 | .563 | 9-7 | .563 | 9-7 | .563 |
West Ham United | 17-17 | .500 | 10-7 | .588 | 7-10 | .412 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-17 | .500 | 8-9 | .471 | 9-8 | .529 |
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