Manchester United vs. Brentford Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Manchester United's Marcus Rashford during the Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Manchester United at Craven Cottage in London, England, Sunday November 13th, 2022.
(AP Photo/Leila Coker)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 28, 2024, 3:25 PM
  • Manchester United is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
  • United earned a 2-1 comeback win at Old Trafford against Brentford.
  • Systems say bettors should look to the over/under for Saturday’s fixture.

Before Saturday’s final Premier League match kicks off from London, I’m set to offer a Manchester United vs. Brentford prediction. 

Brentford enter this game desperate for points. They’ve lost four of their last five games and haven’t captured an outright win in the league since February 10. 

As for opponents Manchester United, they’ve won two straight and three of their last four in all competitions. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Saturday’s match at the Gtech Community Stadium. 

EPL Betting Odds – Manchester United vs. Brentford

  • Manchester United Moneyline: +120
  • Brentford Moneyline: +200
  • Draw Moneyline: +270
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-175/+120)

EPL Prediction – Manchester United vs. Brentford

Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-135)

I’ve debated which team I think gets to two goals here, but history says this match goes over the total. 

This Premier League season, the over is 59.3% when the match kicks off after 10 a.m. ET. Plus, Brentford home matches have proved particularly chaotic, with nine of 11 finishing over the total. 

Within that system is another profitable occurrence. 

Games involving a home underdog allowing north of 1.7 goals per game are 65.6% to the over, including 3-0 when Brentford’s the home team. 

That’s because this team is a mess defensively, largely because of countless injuries. 

On Saturday, they’ll need to deploy a makeshift defensive line with four injuries/suspensions to their defense. 

Although I don’t trust Manchester United’s attack, they’ll have Rasmus Hojlund in the lineup and have looked decent against bad defenses. 

In recent trips to Wolves, Luton Town and Aston Villa, they created at least 1.7 expected goals in all three matches. 

That said, this is a chance to sell Manchester United’s defense, which qualifies as a negative regression candidate entering this game. 

United have conceded 39 goals off 47.4 expected, per fbref.com. Additionally, goalkeeper Andre Onana has stopped four goals over expected. . 

Brentford, despite their recent poor run of form, finally has both Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo healthy. 

Additionally, they’ve created 1.5 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes this season, including 1.8 in their last home match against Chelsea. 

For those reasons, expect ample goals on Saturday. 

Manchester United Form 

March 17 vs. Liverpool: 4-3, W (FA Cup)

March 9 vs. Everton: 2-0, W

March 3 at Manchester City: 1-3, L

Feb. 28 at Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 24 vs. Fulham: 1-2, L

Brentford Form

March 16 at Burnley: 1-2, L

March 9 at Arsenal: 1-2, L

March 2 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

Feb. 26 at West Ham United: 2-4, L

Feb. 20 at Manchester City: 1-0, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalChelseaApr. 233:00 PMEmirates Stadium
WolvesBournemouthApr. 242:45 PMMolineux Stadium
Crystal PalaceNewcastle UnitedApr. 243:00 PMSelhurst Park
EvertonLiverpoolApr. 243:00 PMGoodison Park
Manchester UnitedSheffield UnitedApr. 243:00 PMOld Trafford
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester CityApr. 253:00 PMAmex Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Arsenal FC23-5-57451---
Liverpool FC22-8-37443---
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Aston Villa FC20-6-86621---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1248-9---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1443-7---
Fulham FC12-6-1642-4---
Bournemouth11-9-1342-12---
Crystal Palace9-9-1536-14---
Brentford9-8-1735-7---
Everton10-8-1530-138 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1826-184 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2125-28---
Burnley FC5-8-2123-32---
Sheffield United3-7-2316-57---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal19-13.5948-7.53311-6.647
Aston Villa17-15-1.53011-6.6476-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-13-2.5769-6-2.5889-7.563
Brentford13-19-2.4126-10-1.3827-9-1.441
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley14-19-1.4264-12-1.26510-7.588
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace16-17.4857-9.4389-8.529
Everton15-18.4558-8.5007-10.412
Fulham17-16-1.51510-6-1.6187-10.412
Liverpool17-16.5159-8.5298-8.500
Luton Town21-12-1.63212-5.7069-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-18-2.4415-11-1.3249-7-1.559
Sheffield United18-15.5459-8.5299-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-17.50010-7.5887-10.412
Wolverhampton Wanderers17-16.5158-8.5009-8.529

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.