Arsenal vs. Brighton Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Arsenal's Bukayo Saka, right, celebrates after scoring his side's first goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Fulham at Emirates stadium in London, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023.
(Frank Augstein/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 04, 2024, 4:38 PM
  • Arsenal is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
  • Arsenal have won two of the last three against Brighton.
  • Bettors should play this same game parlay for Saturday’s clash.

As they continue their title challenge this season, Arsenal travel to England’s south coast to battle Brighton & Hove Albion. 

Both teams earned positive results in their midweek fixtures. Arsenal cruised 2-0 at home against Luton Town, while Brighton captured a point as road dogs to Brentford. 

The last time these sides met, Arsenal managed an easy 2-0 win over Brighton. That marks their second win in three over Brighton. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Brighton

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -160
  • Brighton Moneyline: +380
  • Draw Moneyline: +320
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (Over Price/Under Price)

EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Brighton

Same Game Parlay: Arsenal +0.5 & Under 3.5 Goals (-110)

This total is way too high in a match featuring two outstanding league defenses. 

Arsenal leads the way in the Premier League in terms of non-penalty expected goals against. To date, they’ve allowed only 0.65 npxGA per 90, per 

Not only is that the best mark in the Premier League – it’s the best defensive record across all of Europe’s top-five leagues. 

When these sides met last, Arsenal limited Brighton to only 0.7 xG, one big scoring chance, and only one shot on target, per 

They’ve also proved a dominant road defense. Entering Saturday’s match, manager Mikel Arteta’s side has conceded only 10.9 road expected goals against. 

At the same time, this Brighton defense is no joke. 

The Seagulls rank fifth in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90, per 

Although they conceded 2.4 xG to Arsenal at the Emirates, this Arsenal side sees a massive drop-off in offensive production away from home. 

The Gooners have created 2.17 xG per 90 at home compared to only 1.71 on the road. 

They’ve also run very lucky on the road recently against worse defenses, scoring 11 goals off 4.6 expected at Sheffield United and Burnley. 

That tells me this game will finish under 3.5 goals with relative ease. 

At the same time, Arsenal fit a historically profitable betting system. 

Since 2021-22, road favorites off a multi-goal win that won the previous head-to-head meeting by two or more goals are 32-13 SU, assuming the team has a win percentage north of 52%. 

Those teams have dropped all three points only five times in those 45 matches, so expect a result for the visitors on Saturday. 

Arsenal Form 

April 3 vs. Luton Town: 2-0, W

March 31 at Man City: 0-0, D

March 12 vs. FC Porto: 1-0, W (Champions League)

March 9 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W

March 4 at Sheffield United: 6-0, W

Brighton Form

April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D

March 31 at Liverpool: 1-2, L

March 14 vs. Roma: 1-0, W (Europa League)

March 10 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W

March 7 at Roma: 0-4, L (Europa League)

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.