- Arsenal is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
- Arsenal have won two of the last three against Brighton.
- Bettors should play this same game parlay for Saturday’s clash.
As they continue their title challenge this season, Arsenal travel to England’s south coast to battle Brighton & Hove Albion.Â
Both teams earned positive results in their midweek fixtures. Arsenal cruised 2-0 at home against Luton Town, while Brighton captured a point as road dogs to Brentford.Â
The last time these sides met, Arsenal managed an easy 2-0 win over Brighton. That marks their second win in three over Brighton.Â
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.Â
EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Brighton
- Arsenal Moneyline: -160
- Brighton Moneyline: +380
- Draw Moneyline: +320
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (Over Price/Under Price)
EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Brighton
Same Game Parlay: Arsenal +0.5 & Under 3.5 Goals (-110)
This total is way too high in a match featuring two outstanding league defenses.Â
Arsenal leads the way in the Premier League in terms of non-penalty expected goals against. To date, they’ve allowed only 0.65 npxGA per 90, per fbref.com.Â
Not only is that the best mark in the Premier League – it’s the best defensive record across all of Europe’s top-five leagues.Â
When these sides met last, Arsenal limited Brighton to only 0.7 xG, one big scoring chance, and only one shot on target, per fotmob.com.Â
They’ve also proved a dominant road defense. Entering Saturday’s match, manager Mikel Arteta’s side has conceded only 10.9 road expected goals against.Â
At the same time, this Brighton defense is no joke.Â
The Seagulls rank fifth in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90, per fbref.com.Â
Although they conceded 2.4 xG to Arsenal at the Emirates, this Arsenal side sees a massive drop-off in offensive production away from home.Â
The Gooners have created 2.17 xG per 90 at home compared to only 1.71 on the road.Â
They’ve also run very lucky on the road recently against worse defenses, scoring 11 goals off 4.6 expected at Sheffield United and Burnley.Â
That tells me this game will finish under 3.5 goals with relative ease.Â
At the same time, Arsenal fit a historically profitable betting system.Â
Since 2021-22, road favorites off a multi-goal win that won the previous head-to-head meeting by two or more goals are 32-13 SU, assuming the team has a win percentage north of 52%.Â
Those teams have dropped all three points only five times in those 45 matches, so expect a result for the visitors on Saturday.Â
Arsenal FormÂ
April 3 vs. Luton Town: 2-0, W
March 31 at Man City: 0-0, D
March 12 vs. FC Porto: 1-0, W (Champions League)
March 9 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W
March 4 at Sheffield United: 6-0, W
Brighton Form
April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D
March 31 at Liverpool: 1-2, L
March 14 vs. Roma: 1-0, W (Europa League)
March 10 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W
March 7 at Roma: 0-4, L (Europa League)
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Arsenal | Everton | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Emirates Stadium |
Man City | West Ham United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Etihad Stadium |
Brentford | Newcastle United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | GTech Community Stadium |
Brighton & Hove Albion | Manchester United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Amex Stadium |
Burnley | Nottingham Forest | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Turf Moor |
Chelsea | Bournemouth | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Stamford Bridge |
Crystal Palace | Aston Villa | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Selhurst Park |
Liverpool | Wolves | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Anfield |
Luton Town | Fulham | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Kenilworth Road |
Sheffield United | Tottenham | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Bramall Lane |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential | Notes |
Manchester City | 27-7-3 | 88 | 60 | --- |
Arsenal FC | 27-5-5 | 86 | 61 | --- |
Liverpool FC | 23-10-4 | 79 | 43 | --- |
Aston Villa FC | 20-8-9 | 68 | 20 | --- |
Tottenham Hotspur | 19-6-12 | 63 | 10 | --- |
Chelsea FC | 17-9-11 | 60 | 13 | --- |
Newcastle United | 17-6-14 | 57 | 21 | --- |
Manchester United | 17-6-14 | 57 | -3 | --- |
West Ham United | 14-10-13 | 52 | -12 | --- |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-12-12 | 48 | -4 | --- |
Bournemouth | 13-9-15 | 48 | -12 | --- |
Crystal Palace | 12-10-15 | 46 | -6 | --- |
Wolves | 13-7-17 | 46 | -13 | --- |
Fulham FC | 12-8-17 | 44 | -8 | --- |
Everton | 13-9-15 | 40 | -10 | 8 Point Deduction |
Brentford | 10-9-18 | 39 | -7 | --- |
Nottingham Forest | 8-9-20 | 29 | -19 | 4 Point Deduction |
Luton Town | 6-8-23 | 26 | -31 | --- |
Burnley FC | 5-9-23 | 24 | -36 | --- |
Sheffield United | 3-7-27 | 16 | -66 | --- |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 22-14-1 | .608 | 10-7-1 | .583 | 12-7 | .632 |
Aston Villa | 19-17-1 | .527 | 12-7 | .632 | 7-10-1 | .417 |
Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | .541 | 9-8-2 | .526 | 10-8 | .556 |
Brentford | 14-21-2 | .405 | 6-11-1 | .361 | 8-10-1 | .447 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 15-20-2 | .432 | 8-9-1 | .472 | 7-11-1 | .395 |
Burnley | 18-19 | .486 | 5-13 | .278 | 13-6 | .684 |
Chelsea | 19-18 | .514 | 10-8 | .556 | 9-10 | .474 |
Crystal Palace | 20-17 | .541 | 9-9 | .500 | 11-8 | .579 |
Everton | 17-20 | .459 | 10-9 | .526 | 7-11 | .389 |
Fulham | 18-18-1 | .500 | 10-8-1 | .553 | 8-10 | .444 |
Liverpool | 18-19 | .486 | 10-8 | .556 | 8-11 | .421 |
Luton Town | 22-14-1 | .608 | 13-5 | .722 | 9-9-1 | .500 |
Manchester City | 19-18 | .514 | 8-10 | .444 | 11-8 | .579 |
Manchester United | 17-20 | .459 | 9-10 | .474 | 8-10 | .444 |
Newcastle United | 18-19 | .486 | 12-7 | .632 | 6-12 | .333 |
Nottingham Forest | 15-20-2 | .432 | 5-13-1 | .289 | 10-7-1 | .583 |
Sheffield United | 19-18 | .514 | 9-9 | .500 | 10-9 | .526 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 18-19 | .486 | 9-10 | .474 | 9-9 | .500 |
West Ham United | 19-18 | .514 | 12-7 | .632 | 7-11 | .389 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-19 | .486 | 9-10 | .474 | 9-9 | .500 |
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