- Brighton is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Arsenal.
- Arsenal has won 14 of its last 15 EPL night matches.
- My Brighton vs. Arsenal prediction is a live betting angle on Brighton.
Saturday’s Premier League action closes with Arsenal facing a trip to Brighton on short rest.
The Gooners picked up a 3-1 come-from-behind win against Brentford on Wednesday, their second win in a row. Currently, Arsenal trails Liverpool by nine points for the league lead.
Brighton captured a 2-2 draw as road underdogs against Aston Villa on Monday. That marks a third straight draw for the Seagulls, who haven’t won outright since November 23.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Brighton vs. Arsenal prediction.
Brighton vs. Arsenal Odds, Premier League
Brighton vs. Arsenal Prediction
Based on Brighton’s strong record playing from behind and their previous success as home underdogs, my Brighton vs. Arsenal prediction is to live bet Brighton.
There are arguments both in favor of and against Arsenal in this spot.
On the one hand, Manchester City closed at -130 against Brighton earlier this season. Under no circumstances are Arsenal equal to Manchester City, even with Bukayo Saka out.
But it’s also a nightmare spot for Mikel Arteta’s side as they face a second straight road game with only two days of prep. Meanwhile, Brighton haven’t played since Monday.
That colors some interest in the Brighton moneyline, especially given they’re 2-0 as home dogs this season.
But both matches – against Man City and Tottenham – followed a similar pattern. Brighton trailed at halftime and pulled off a miraculous comeback late.
As a result, it wouldn’t surprise me if a higher price on Brighton becomes available live. At the same time, there’s no issue taking Brighton (+333) pregame.
For whatever reason, the Seagulls play their best soccer from behind.
Per understat.com, Brighton owns a +2.83 expected goal differential in 283 minutes spent playing from behind. In those situations, they create 2.27 expected goals per 90.
The slight worry here is that Arsenal possesses an outstanding record playing from ahead.
Entering Saturday’s match, Arteta’s side owns a +3.76 xGiff with a one-goal lead and a +4.39 xGDiff with a two-plus goal advantage.
As a result, a much bigger price is needed to get involved with Brighton, which fits the profile of an underdog that wins outright in this spot.
Since 2012, dogs between +182 and +705 that closed an underdog in their previous match are 32.6% SU, assuming three factors:
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +1 and +4
- The dog’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +2
- The dog’s result in the last head-to-head meeting falls between -1 and +0
When those dogs are playing at home, they’re 34-69 (33%). As a result, it’s the Seagulls or nothing on Saturday.
