- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
- Villa thrashed Brighton 6-1 earlier this season at Villa Park.
- The case for fading a Brighton team with little motivation.
Aston Villa, looking to put a stranglehold on a Champions League position, travel on Sunday to face Brighton.
Villa enters this match in decent form. They’re unbeaten in four straight league games but dropped points by blowing a 2-0 lead last weekend against Chelsea.
As for Brighton, they look like a team playing with minimal motivation. The Seagulls have dropped two straight games by 3+ goals and last won a league game on March 10.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Sunday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Brighton
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +130
- Brighton Moneyline: +175
- Draw Moneyline: +280
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Brighton
Aston Villa Draw, No Bet (-145)
Brighton look like they’ve quit this season and history suggests the best they can do is a draw.
Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs that have allowed three or more goals in two straight games are 31-138 SU, assuming they closed an underdog in their previous game.
Even when those teams play at home, they’re only 13-63 SU against the three-way moneyline.
Additionally, Brighton face major personnel concerns for Sunday’s match.
In addition to the injuries that have plagued their attack for months – Solly March, Evan Ferguson and Kaoru Mitoma – they face two key defensive absences on Sunday.
Both Pervis Estupinan and Jan Paul van Hecke are out for Sunday’s meeting against a Villa side that has dominated them historically.
Villa have avoided defeat in seven straight league meetings against Brighton and posted a +2.1 post-shot expected goal differential at Villa Park.
Although Brighton have a rest edge for Sunday’s match, they’ve won the expected goals battle only once in their previous eight games.
Plus, Villa have done quite well as a favorite this season.
They’re 16-9 SU in such spots – including 6-3 away from home – and have dropped all three points only five times, including once on the road.
With manager Unai Emery’s side playing with greater motivation, take them to do no worse than a draw on Sunday away from home.
Aston Villa Form
May 2 vs. Olympiacos: 2-4, L (Europa Conference League)
April 27 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
April 18 at Lille: 1-2, L (Europa Conference League)
April 14 at Arsenal: 2-0, W
April 11 vs. Lille: 2-1, W (Europa Conference League)
Brighton Form
April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L
April 25 vs. Man City: 0-4, L
April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D
April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L
April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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