Brighton vs. Chelsea Prediction, Expert Pick | EPL – BetMGM

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Brighton's Simon Adingra, left, challenges for the ball with Liverpool's Luis Diaz during the English Premier League soccer match between Liverpool and Brighton and Hove at Anfield Stadium in Liverpool, England, Sunday, March 31, 2024.
(AP Photo/Rui Vieira)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 13, 2024, 4:10 PM
  • Brighton is a +0.5-goal underdog against Chelsea.
  • The Blues earned a 3-2 home win against Brighton in the reverse fixture.
  • Why the market is overrating one side on Wednesday.

As they seek a positive end to the season, Brighton welcome Chelsea to the Amex Stadium on Wednesday. 

Both teams enter this game in good form. The Seagulls captured a point away from home at Newcastle over the weekend, their second straight result. 

Meanwhile, Chelsea have won three straight Premier League fixtures and are unbeaten in their last four in the league. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match. 

EPL Odds – Brighton vs. Chelsea

  • Brighton Moneyline: +210
  • Chelsea Moneyline: +105
  • Draw Moneyline: +290
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-130)

Premier League Prediction – Brighton vs. Chelsea

Brighton Spread (+0.5, -135)

Stepping in front of Chelsea is definitely nerve-wracking, but this is a great sell-high spot on the Blues. 

History says it’s wise to fade teams off a narrow win despite their defense. 

Since the 2012-13 season, teams off a one-goal win that allowed between two and four goals are 79-149 SU in their next contest. 

Even if you eliminate all underdogs from consideration, bettors will find the remaining favorites are only 70-69 SU in the subsequent contest. 

Fading Chelsea in that spot this season has proved particularly profitable. 

Manager Mauricio Pochettino’s side has played four matches this season immediately following a one-goal win, while allowing at least two goals. 

They’ve captured all three points only once in the four subsequent matches, including a draw and a loss when they’re on the road. 

Conversely, Brighton have excelled this season at picking up points in front of their home support. 

For all of their struggles this season, Brighton have dropped all three points only three times at home, with two of those losses coming against Man City and Arsenal. 

The last time manager Roberto de Zerbi’s side featured at home, they completely dominated proceedings against Aston Villa in a 1-0 win. 

For that match, Brighton created 2.5 xG and six big scoring chances, per 

Plus, Saturday’s win against Nottingham Forest marked only the sixth time in 18 road matches Chelsea captured all three points on the road. 

For those reasons, take the Seagulls to extend their unbeaten run to three matches on Wednesday. 

Brighton Form 

May 11 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D

May 5 vs. Aston Villa: 1-0, W

April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L

April 25 vs. Manchester City: 0-4, L

April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D

Chelsea Form

May 11 at Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W

May 5 vs. West Ham: 5-0, W

May 2 vs. Tottenham: 2-0, W

April 27 at Aston Villa: 2-2, D

April 23 at Arsenal: 0-5, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.