- Brighton is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Everton.
- Five of Brighton's last six EPL matches as a home favorite have resulted in a draw.
- My Brighton vs. Everton prediction depends on Brighton’s closing price.
Brighton vs. Everton Odds, Premier League
Brighton vs. Everton Prediction
If Brighton’s three-way moneyline price drops to -150 or lower, my Brighton vs. Everton prediction is the Brighton Moneyline.
The price as of Wednesday afternoon (-160) is a bit high for a team that has struggled as home favorites this season.
To date, Brighton is 1-5-1 (W-D-L) as a home favorite.
But there’s a key personnel note that should be considered with this Brighton team.
Last week’s match at Manchester United marked the first time Yankuba Minteh, Kaoru Mitoma, Joao Pedro and Danny Welbeck all started … since Matchday 3!
The quartet of attackers started each of the first three league matches, with Brighton earning two wins and a draw.
Included in that sample is a trip to Everton, where Brighton won 3-0 with a +2.4 post-shot expected goal differential.
Brighton rates out a slight positive regression candidate at home, too, with a +1 goal differential against a +2.4 xGDiff, per fbref.com.
They’re also facing an Everton side off a win that could be viewed as slightly lucky. Although they posted a +0.83 xGDiff in that match, they recorded a -0.22 post-shot xGDiff.
History also likes this spot to bet Brighton.
Since 2012, favorites between -150 and -122 in games 20-37 are 74-22, assuming the opponent’s previous game margin is +1, +2 or -2, including 22-0 over the last three years.
When the dog closed a favorite in their last game, the favorite is 36-7 SU, including 22-4 when the dog is coming off a one-goal win.
As a result, see if the price comes down on Brighton and bet it once it reaches -150.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Bournemouth | Nottingham Forest | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Brighton | Everton | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Liverpool | Ipswich Town | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Anfield |
| Southampton | Newcastle United | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Wolves | Arsenal | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Molineux |
| Manchester City | Chelsea | Jan. 25 | 12:30 p.m | Etihad Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brentford | Jan. 26 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Tottenham | Leicester City | Jan. 26 | 9 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Aston Villa | West Ham United | Jan. 26 | 11:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Manchester United | Jan. 26 | 2 p.m. | Craven Cottage |
Premier League Against the Spread Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 8-12-2 | 40.9% | 2-7-2 | 27.3% | 6-5-0 | 54.5% |
| Aston Villa | 8-13-1 | 38.6% | 3-7-1 | 31.8% | 5-6-0 | 45.5% |
| Bournemouth | 13-8-1 | 61.4% | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Brentford | 13-7-2 | 63.6% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% | 5-3-2 | 60.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 11-10-1 | 52.3% | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Chelsea | 10-11-1 | 47.7% | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 13-7-2 | 63.6% | 5-4-2 | 54.5% | 8-3-0 | 72.7% |
| Everton | 11-8-2 | 57.1% | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 5-3-2 | 60.0% |
| Fulham | 13-9-0 | 59.1% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 9-2-0 | 81.8% |
| Ipswich Town | 10-12-0 | 45.5% | 3-9-0 | 25.0% | 7-3-0 | 70.0% |
| Leicester City | 11-9-2 | 54.5% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 6-3-1 | 65.0% |
| Liverpool | 9-9-3 | 50.0% | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Manchester City | 5-16-1 | 25.0% | 2-8-0 | 20.0% | 3-8-1 | 29.2% |
| Manchester United | 8-12-2 | 40.9% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 4-5-1 | 45.0% |
| Newcastle United | 12-9-1 | 56.8% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% | 6-5-0 | 54.5% |
| Nottingham Forest | 15-7-0 | 68.2% | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 9-2-0 | 81.8% |
| Southampton | 8-12-2 | 40.9% | 2-8-0 | 20.0% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 8-13-1 | 38.6% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 4-6-1 | 40.9% |
| West Ham United | 11-11-0 | 50.0% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 6-4-0 | 60.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10-12 | 45.5% | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 6-6-0 | 50.0% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 15-5-1 | 50 | 30 |
| Arsenal | 12-8-2 | 44 | 22 |
| Nottingham Forest | 13-5-4 | 44 | 11 |
| Chelsea | 11-7-4 | 40 | 17 |
| Manchester City | 11-5-6 | 38 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 11-5-6 | 38 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 10-7-5 | 37 | 10 |
| Aston Villa | 10-6-6 | 36 | -1 |
| Brighton | 8-10-4 | 34 | 5 |
| Fulham | 8-9-5 | 33 | 4 |
| Brentford | 8-4-10 | 28 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 6-9-7 | 27 | -3 |
| Manchester United | 7-5-10 | 26 | -5 |
| West Ham United | 7-5-10 | 26 | -16 |
| Tottenham | 7-3-12 | 24 | 10 |
| Everton | 4-8-9 | 20 | -10 |
| Wolves | 4-4-14 | 16 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-7-12 | 16 | -23 |
| Leicester City | 3-5-14 | 14 | -25 |
| Southampton | 1-3-18 | 6 | -35 |
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