- Brentford is a -0.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
- Brentford earned a 3-0 win over Burnley in the previous head-to-head meeting.
- How to take advantage of the low market perception of Brentfordโs attack.
Before Saturdayโs English Premier League kickoff from Turf Moor, Iโm here to provide a Burnley vs. Brentford prediction.ย
Burnley, who lost the previous meeting 3-0 at the GTech Community Stadium, is coming off a 2-2 draw at West Ham United.ย
As for Brentford, they played well as road underdogs at Arsenal last week but ultimately fell 2-1.ย
Hereโs a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturdayโs match.ย
EPL Betting Odds – Brentford vs. Burnley
- Brentford Moneyline: +110
- Burnley Moneyline: +220
- Draw Moneyline: +270
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-150/+110)
EPL Prediction – Brentford vs. Burnley
Brentford Moneyline (+110) | Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 (-110)
A long time has passed since Brentford faced one of the leagueโs worst defenses.ย
Thatโs why I love this price on their team total, as itโs an opportunity to fade the market perception of this team.ย
Only once since returning Ivan Toney from suspension have Brentford faced a team allowing north of 1.5 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.ย
In that game โ a trip to Wolves โ they created 1.9 expected goals on their way to scoring twice.ย
Since December, Brentford have played only four games against a bad defense.ย
Slightly worrisome is that they created only 0.6 expected goals at Sheffield United,ย but they played with neither Toney nor attacking midfielder Matthias Jensen.ย
In the three other matches, the Bees generated at least 1.9 expected goals in all three.ย
Without adjusting for strength of schedule, Brentford has created 1.27 expected goals per 90 minutes and 1.34 post shot expected goals with Toney back from suspension, per fbref.com.ย
In those nine matches, they cleared this number five times.ย
Now they face a Burnley side that allows 1.62 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes and surrendered 3.1 expected goals to Brentford in the reverse fixture.ย
As for the Brentford moneyline, thereโs a strong correlation between these markets.ย
In games this season where Brentford scores at least twice, theyโre 7-3-2 (W-D-L).ย
Conversely, Burnley has earned points in only two games this season in which theyโve allowed more than two goals.ย
Lastly, since the 2012-13 EPL season, closing favorites between +140 and -145 off a loss that won the previous meeting are 135-110 SU, including 52-36 away from home.ย
Those teams have won 15 of 21 qualifying games this season, including four of six away from home.ย
Back the Bees at +100 or better on the three-way moneyline and -125 or better on the team total.ย
Brentford Formย
March 9 at Arsenal: 1-2, L
March 2 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
Feb. 26 at West Ham United: 2-4, L
Feb. 20 at Manchester City: 0-1, L
Feb. 17 vs. Liverpool: 1-4, L
Burnley Form
March 10 at West Ham United: 2-2, D
March 3 vs. Burnley: 0-2, L
Feb. 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-3, L
Feb. 17 vs. Arsenal: 0-5, L
Feb. 10 at Liverpool: 1-3, L
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Southampton | Manchester United | Sep. 14 | 7:30 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
Brighton & Hove Albion | Ipswich Town | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
Crystal Palace | Leicester City | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
Fulham | West Ham United | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Liverpool | Nottingham Forest | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Anfield |
Manchester City | Brentford | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Aston Villa | Everton | Sep. 14 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
Bournemouth | Chelsea | Sep. 14 | 3:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
Tottenham | Arsenal | Sep. 15 | 9 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Wolves | Newcastle United | Sep. 15 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
Arsenal | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
Newcastle United | 2-1-0 | 7 | 2 |
Brentford | 2-0-1 | 6 | 1 |
Aston Villa | 2-0-1 | 6 | 0 |
Bournemouth | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 1-1-1 | 4 | 3 |
Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
Chelsea | 1-1-1 | 4 | 2 |
Fulham | 1-1-1 | 4 | 0 |
West Ham United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -1 |
Manchester United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -3 |
Leicester City | 0-1-2 | 1 | -2 |
Crystal Palace | 0-1-2 | 1 | -3 |
Ipswich Town | 0-1-2 | 1 | -5 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-2 | 1 | -6 |
Southampton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -4 |
Everton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -8 |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Aston Villa | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Bournemouth | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Brentford | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Chelsea | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Crystal Palace | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Everton | 0-3-0 | .000 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Fulham | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
Ipswich Town | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Leicester City | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Newcastle United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Southampton | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
West Ham United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
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