Brentford vs. Burnley Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Before Saturday’s English Premier League kickoff from Turf Moor, I’m here to provide a Burnley vs. Brentford prediction. 

Burnley, who lost the previous meeting 3-0 at the GTech Community Stadium, is coming off a 2-2 draw at West Ham United. 

As for Brentford, they played well as road underdogs at Arsenal last week but ultimately fell 2-1. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Brentford vs. Burnley

• Brentford Moneyline: +110
• Burnley Moneyline: +220
• Draw Moneyline: +270
• Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-150/+110)

EPL Prediction – Brentford vs. Burnley

Brentford Moneyline (+110) | Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 (-110)

A long time has passed since Brentford faced one of the league’s worst defenses. 

That’s why I love this price on their team total, as it’s an opportunity to fade the market perception of this team. 

Only once since returning Ivan Toney from suspension have Brentford faced a team allowing north of 1.5 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. 

In that game – a trip to Wolves – they created 1.9 expected goals on their way to scoring twice. 

Since December, Brentford have played only four games against a bad defense. 

Slightly worrisome is that they created only 0.6 expected goals at Sheffield United,  but they played with neither Toney nor attacking midfielder Matthias Jensen. 

In the three other matches, the Bees generated at least 1.9 expected goals in all three. 

Without adjusting for strength of schedule, Brentford has created 1.27 expected goals per 90 minutes and 1.34 post shot expected goals with Toney back from suspension, per fbref.com. 

In those nine matches, they cleared this number five times. 

Now they face a Burnley side that allows 1.62 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes and surrendered 3.1 expected goals to Brentford in the reverse fixture. 

As for the Brentford moneyline, there’s a strong correlation between these markets. 

In games this season where Brentford scores at least twice, they’re 7-3-2 (W-D-L). 

Conversely, Burnley has earned points in only two games this season in which they’ve allowed more than two goals. 

Lastly, since the 2012-13 EPL season, closing favorites between +140 and -145 off a loss that won the previous meeting are 135-110 SU, including 52-36 away from home. 

Those teams have won 15 of 21 qualifying games this season, including four of six away from home. 

Back the Bees at +100 or better on the three-way moneyline and -125 or better on the team total. 

Brentford Form 

March 9 at Arsenal: 1-2, L

March 2 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

Feb. 26 at West Ham United: 2-4, L

Feb. 20 at Manchester City: 0-1, L

Feb. 17 vs. Liverpool: 1-4, L

Burnley Form

March 10 at West Ham United: 2-2, D

March 3 vs. Burnley: 0-2, L

Feb. 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-3, L

Feb. 17 vs. Arsenal: 0-5, L

Feb. 10 at Liverpool: 1-3, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

EPL Standings

EPL ATS Records