- Brentford is a -0.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
- Brentford earned a 3-0 win over Burnley in the previous head-to-head meeting.
- How to take advantage of the low market perception of Brentford’s attack.
Before Saturday’s English Premier League kickoff from Turf Moor, I’m here to provide a Burnley vs. Brentford prediction.
Burnley, who lost the previous meeting 3-0 at the GTech Community Stadium, is coming off a 2-2 draw at West Ham United.
As for Brentford, they played well as road underdogs at Arsenal last week but ultimately fell 2-1.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Brentford vs. Burnley
- Brentford Moneyline: +110
- Burnley Moneyline: +220
- Draw Moneyline: +270
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-150/+110)
EPL Prediction – Brentford vs. Burnley
Brentford Moneyline (+110) | Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 (-110)
A long time has passed since Brentford faced one of the league’s worst defenses.
That’s why I love this price on their team total, as it’s an opportunity to fade the market perception of this team.
Only once since returning Ivan Toney from suspension have Brentford faced a team allowing north of 1.5 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.
In that game – a trip to Wolves – they created 1.9 expected goals on their way to scoring twice.
Since December, Brentford have played only four games against a bad defense.
Slightly worrisome is that they created only 0.6 expected goals at Sheffield United, but they played with neither Toney nor attacking midfielder Matthias Jensen.
In the three other matches, the Bees generated at least 1.9 expected goals in all three.
Without adjusting for strength of schedule, Brentford has created 1.27 expected goals per 90 minutes and 1.34 post shot expected goals with Toney back from suspension, per fbref.com.
In those nine matches, they cleared this number five times.
Now they face a Burnley side that allows 1.62 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes and surrendered 3.1 expected goals to Brentford in the reverse fixture.
As for the Brentford moneyline, there’s a strong correlation between these markets.
In games this season where Brentford scores at least twice, they’re 7-3-2 (W-D-L).
Conversely, Burnley has earned points in only two games this season in which they’ve allowed more than two goals.
Lastly, since the 2012-13 EPL season, closing favorites between +140 and -145 off a loss that won the previous meeting are 135-110 SU, including 52-36 away from home.
Those teams have won 15 of 21 qualifying games this season, including four of six away from home.
Back the Bees at +100 or better on the three-way moneyline and -125 or better on the team total.
Brentford Form
March 9 at Arsenal: 1-2, L
March 2 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
Feb. 26 at West Ham United: 2-4, L
Feb. 20 at Manchester City: 0-1, L
Feb. 17 vs. Liverpool: 1-4, L
Burnley Form
March 10 at West Ham United: 2-2, D
March 3 vs. Burnley: 0-2, L
Feb. 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-3, L
Feb. 17 vs. Arsenal: 0-5, L
Feb. 10 at Liverpool: 1-3, L
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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