Chelsea vs. Manchester City Prediction, Odds & Best Bet Today – EPL, Nov. 12

min read
Manchester City's Phil Foden, right, celebrates with his teammate Erling Haaland after scoring his side's sixth goal and his personal hat trick during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Manchester United at Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Nov 21, 2023, 9:20 PM
  • Manchester City is a -0.5 goal favorite against Chelsea.
  • Chelsea arrive off 4-1 win against Tottenham, who had two players sent off.
  • Manchester City have won three straight Premier League fixtures.

I’m ready to provide a Chelsea vs. Manchester City prediction ahead of Sunday’s marquee English Premier League clash. 

Hosts Chelsea earned an eventful 4-1 win against Tottenham on Monday thanks to a Nicholas Jackson hat trick. 

As for City, they’ve won three straight Premier League contests. Most recently, they captured a 6-1 win over Bournemouth after a 3-0 win against Manchester United. 

Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Sunday’s encounter at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea vs. Manchester City Odds

  • Manchester City to Win: +110
  • Chelsea to Win: +220
  • Chelsea vs. Manchester City Draw: +260
  • The Chelsea vs. Manchester City Over/Under is 2.5 Goals

Chelsea vs. Manchester City Prediction

Based on recent trends, the prediction for Chelsea vs. Manchester City is a Same Game Parlay: Manchester City Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals (-135)

My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.


Chelsea arrive at this clash off a huge win, but 4-1 looks a lot worse when you consider Tottenham had two players sent off. 

They likely won’t count themselves that lucky again, and I expect a second straight Chelsea win is unlikely. 

I do lean to the Manchester City Moneyline (-135) but this parlay offers added insurance for the same price. 

Pep Guardiola’s side has overperformed their underlying metrics this season – +20 goal differential vs. a +13.4 xGDiff – but they possess a top-class defense. 

The Cityzens have surrendered only 8.1 expected goals this season, along with 6.5 post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com. 

Chelsea ranks third in expected goals this season, but they’ve received a lot of penalty luck. In terms of non-penalty expected goals, the Blues are fifth. 

At the same time, Chelsea’s defense is amongst the best in the Premier League. 

They’re fourth in both expected goals against and non-penalty expected goals against. Just against Arsenal and Liverpool, Chelsea allowed 1.15 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Given the defensive quality of these teams, I’ll be surprised if Sunday’s match proves a barnburner. 

That said, City have won the expected goals battle in every match this season. Back this same-game parlay at -145 or better.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.