- Chelsea is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
- Chelsea is 2-2 SU against Brighton in the last four head-to-head meetings.
- I predict Brighton & Hove Albion will win outright on Saturday.
Chelsea look to continue their positive start to the season with a home fixture against Brighton and Hove Albion on Matchday 5.
The Blues captured a 3-0 win at West Ham last week. That leaves them unbeaten since a Matchday 1 defeat against Manchester City.
Brighton, meanwhile, drew 2-2 against Nottingham Forest on Matchday 4. Entering this match, they’re one of only four unbeaten teams in the league.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs. Brighton prediction.
Chelsea vs. Brighton Odds, Premier League
- Chelsea Moneyline: -145
- Brighton Moneyline: +340
- Draw Moneyline: +310
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-190), No (+130)
Chelsea vs. Brighton Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for Chelsea vs. Brighton is the Brighton & Hove Albion Moneyline (+340).
One contingency I need to add in order to make this bet: Mats Wieffer has to start on Saturday. Otherwise, I question how Brighton’s defense holds up against Chelsea’s attack.
That aside, there simply isn’t as big a gap between these teams right now as the odds suggest.
Chelsea has a +0.41 expected goal differential per 90 minutes while Brighton has a +0.42 xGDiff per 90, according to fbref.com.
While last season’s fixtures are difficult to evaluate because each featured a red card, the prior campaign saw Brighton dominate Chelsea.
In April 2023, Brighton traveled to Stamford Bridge. They won the match 2-1 and captured a 2.9-0.5 xG edge along with a 5-0 big scoring chances edge, per fotmob.com.
Brighton also matches a historically profitable betting system on Saturday.
Since 2012, road dogs at +205 or higher in games 1-18 are 24.6% SU for a 94% return on investment, assuming three factors:
- The favorite’s previous game margin is between +1 and +3
- The underdog’s previous game margin is between +0 and +2
- The underdog posted between a -2 and +0 goal differential in the last meeting.
That system is already 1-2 SU this season with two of the three qualifiers earning points away from home.
As a result, I’ll place a small wager on Brighton to earn all three points and continue its unbeaten run.
Chelsea Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 24 vs. Barrow: 5-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 21 at West Ham United: 3-0, W
- Sept. 14 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W
- Sept. 1 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D
- Aug. 29 at Servette: 1-2, L (Europa Conference League)
Brighton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 22 vs. Nottingham Forest: 2-2, D
- Sept. 18 vs. Wolves: 3-2, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 14 vs. Ipswich Town: 0-0, D
- Aug. 31 at Arsenal: 1-1, D
- Aug. 27 vs. Crawley: 4-0, W (EFL Cup)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Chelsea odds and Brighton & Hove Albion odds!
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