- Chelsea is a -1.5-goal home favorite against Wolves.
- Chelsea has won seven of its last eight EPL Monday night matches.
- My Chelsea vs. Wolves prediction is for Wolves to cover the spread.
Following a disappointing home draw against Bournemouth, Chelsea will stay at home for a meeting with Wolves.
The Blues’ 2-2 draw against Bournemouth extended their winless run to five league matches. As it stands, Enzo Maresca’s side sits fourth in the league table.
Wolves stumbled to a 3-0 defeat at Newcastle United in the midweek. Now they face a second straight road game against Chelsea, who won 6-2 in the last meeting.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs. Wolves prediction.
Chelsea vs. Wolves Odds, Premier League
Chelsea vs. Wolves Prediction
Based on Chelsea’s injury absentees and Wolves’ relatively strong underlying metrics, my Chelsea vs. Wolves prediction is the Wolves Spread (+1.5, -115).
Even if Chelsea played a full-strength Starting XI on Monday, there’s an argument they’re overvalued from a spread standpoint.
For the season, Chelsea owns a +0.58 expected goal differential per 90 minutes. At home, that only increases to a +0.79 xGDiff per 90, per fbref.com.
Wolves has run pretty unlucky this season and has largely struggled because of bad goalkeeping.
Pereira’s side owns a -17 goal differential compared to a -12.4 xGDiff. Away from home, it’s a -8 differential vs. a -6.5 expected goal differential.
The good news for Wolves? Maresca hinted that talisman Cole Palmer and crucial central defender Levi Colwill are doubtful to play on Monday.
This season in league play, Palmer leads the team in non-penalty xG plus expected assists (17.2). Without him, bettors should question how Chelsea’s attack flourishes.
While Wolves are coming off a 3-0 road loss against Newcastle, metrics suggest that margin was unlucky.
Wolves posted a -3 goal differential compared to a -0.49 xGDiff and a -0.19 post-shot xGDiff at St. James’ Park.
Pereira’s side also matches a historically profitable system in this spot.
Since 2012, 1.5-goal underdogs that closed a dog in their previous game are 58-20 (74.4%) ATS, assuming three factors:
- The dog’s previous game margin falls between -5 and +0
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +1
- The dog lost the previous head-to-head meeting
Those dogs have faced Chelsea 11 times over that span and have covered the spread 10 times, including five in a row.
As a result, take the road dog to cover the spread on Monday.
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