- Crystal Palace is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Fulham.
- Crystal Palace has lost three of its last four EPL matches as a favorite.
- My Crystal Palace vs. Fulham prediction is a Same Game Parlay
It’s a London Derby at Selhurst Park, with Crystal Palace hosting upstart Fulham.
Palace captured a second straight result in the league with a 2-2 draw at Wolves on Matchday 10. Paired with a win over Tottenham, Oliver Glasner’s side has escaped the relegation zone.
Fulham came from behind in stoppage time on Monday to win 2-1 over Brentford. That gives Marco Silva’s side three wins and four results over the last six league games.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Crystal Palace vs. Fulham prediction.
Premier League Odds: Crystal Palace vs. Fulham
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | +0.5 (-210) | 2.5 (-115) | +165 |
| Crystal Palace | -0.5 (+145) | 2.5 (-120) | +155 |
| Draw | +240 |
Premier League Betting: Crystal Palace vs. Fulham Prediction
Based on Fulham’s positive regression profile and Palace’s struggles as a favorite, my Crystal Palace vs. Fulham prediction is a SGP: Fulham +0.5 & Under 4.5 Goals (-135).
I’m not sure the market has caught on to Fulham’s strength. Yet, they’ve run super unlucky recently.
Sample Fulham’s previous six league matches, and bettors will find they own a +1 goal differential. However, it comes against a +5.8 post-shot xGDiff!
The last time Fulham closed a road dog, they went to Manchester City and won the expected goals battle 2.6-1.6 and the post-shot xG battle 2.5-1.3.
If Silva can take that same profile to Crystal Palace and replicate the metrics, I’ll be shocked if they lose outright against Crystal Palace.
Plus, Crystal Palace face some key injury absentees for Saturday’s match. Attacker Eberechi Eze, midfielder Adam Wharton and midfielder Jefferson Lerma are all out on Saturday.
Fulham are also unbeaten in the last five meetings against Crystal Palace and match a historically profitable betting system.
Half-goal underdogs priced between -205 and +102 facing previous road underdogs are 70% ATS since 2012, assuming the game number falls between two and 14.
But given the heavy juice on the Fulham spread, I’ll elect for a parlay piece to drive the price down.
Over the last 12 meetings between these clubs, 11 have finished under 4.5 goals. Add in both rank 11th or better in non-penalty xG allowed and I’ll pair the spread with under 4.5 goals.
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