- Crystal Palace is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Palace earned a 1-0 road win against Manchester United at Old Trafford.
- Why bettors should expect Palace to continue their strong form.
For the final game of Premier League Matchday 36, Crystal Palace welcomes Manchester United to Selhurst Park.
Hosts Palace enter this game in brilliant form. They’re unbeaten in four straight matches and have captured two consecutive wins at home.
As for Manchester United, they have only one win in their last five in all competitions and dropped points last weekend at home to Burnley.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Monday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +130
- Manchester United Moneyline: +180
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)
EPL Prediction – Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United
Crystal Palace Draw, No Bet (-145)
Positive regression meets negative regression for Monday’s fixture in London.
Palace have run pretty unlucky this season, particularly at home. Entering Monday’s match, they own a -12 goal differential against a -7.5 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
At Selhurst Park, it’s a +2 goal differential compared to a +3.4 expected goal differential.
For Monday’s match, manager Oliver Glasner could return two key pieces to the Starting XI.
Center-back Marc Guehi, who hasn’t played in months, and attacker Eberechi Eze — an absentee last weekend — could both feature against Manchester United.
Entering Monday’s match, United have run really lucky away from home.
Although most of the gap centers around trips to Brentford and Liverpool, United owns a -2 road goal differential compared to a -11.5 expected goal differential.
Manager Erik ten Hag’s side has also failed to win four consecutive road matches and has only three wins in seven road matches this calendar year.
United is also riddled with injuries as both Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford could miss Monday’s match along with both starting center-backs.
Plus, I’m applying a bit of betting calculus for this game.
In Premier League games this season featuring a home favorite against a side allowing between 1.4 and 1.9 goals per game, the over is 63.3%.
That tells me to place my trust in the better defense for this game: Crystal Palace.
To date, the Eagles rank sixth in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. Manchester United is 18th, according to fbref.com.
I don’t hate a look at Crystal Palace Over 1.5 Goals (-120), but I’m more certain about them doing no worse than a draw.
For those reasons, take the hosts at a short price on Monday.
Crystal Palace Form
April 27 at Fulham: 1-1, D
April 24 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W
April 21 vs. West Ham United: 5-2, W
April 14 at Liverpool: 1-0, W
April 6 vs. Manchester City: 2-4, L
Manchester United Form
April 27 vs. Burnley: 1-1, D
April 24 vs. Sheffield United: 4-2, W
April 21 vs. Coventry City: 3-3, D (FA Cup)
April 13 at Bournemouth: 2-2, D
April 7 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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