- Crystal Palace is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Southampton.
- Crystal Palace has lost three of its last four EPL day matches as a favorite.
- My Crystal Palace vs. Southampton prediction is for Southampton to earn points.
A Sunday clash with relegation implications takes place on Sunday at Selhurst Park with Crystal Palace hosting Southampton.
Palace accomplished an impressive result against Bournemouth on Boxing Day, drawing 0-0 with the Cherries. Currently, Oliver Glasner’s side sits 16th in the league table.
Southampton’s struggles continued with a 1-0 home defeat to West Ham. That marked the first match under new manager Ivan Juric, who will try for his first points as dogs against Palace.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Crystal Palace vs. Southampton prediction.
Crystal Palace vs. Southampton Odds, Premier League
Crystal Palace vs. Southampton Prediction
Based on Palace’s lucky result on Boxing Day and Southampton’s strong defensive record, my Crystal Palace vs. Southampton prediction is the Southampton Spread (+0.5, +130).
Additionally, the visitors are worth a sprinkle on the moneyline at +425.
Southampton looked improved, albeit in defeat against West Ham. Juric guided the Saints to a -0.32 expected goal differential in defeat, suggesting some bad luck.
On Sunday, Juric gets a Palace side that ran lucky against Bournemouth.
The Eagles played to a 0-0 draw against the Cherries, but expected goals rated the match 1.2-0.5 in Bournemouth’s favor.
Now, the role is reversed for Palace, which is forced to break down an improving Southampton defense.
The Saints have kept two straight opponents under 1.1 post-shot xG. Prior to Thursday’s game, they allowed 2.2 post-shot xG per 90 minutes before adjusting for strength of schedule.
If Southampton can sit in a low defensive block and play on the counter, bettors should expect improved results under a new manager.
Southampton also matches a historically profitable angle in this spot, both against the spread and on the moneyline.
Regarding the former, half-goal underdogs against previous road dogs are 63% ATS in games 3-26, assuming the underdog also closed a dog in their last game.
When those dogs have allowed one or fewer goals in two straight games: 42-19 ATS, including 30-8 in games 3-20.
From a moneyline standpoint, the system is exactly the same, except it works better in games 11-26.
In that sample, the underdog is 45-94 SU, including 14-25 since the 2022 league season.
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