- Why I’m supporting Wolves as a home underdog.
- Is Nottingham Forest undervalued at the City Ground?
- Read on for full analysis and best bets.
The international break is over, and soccer bettors have another 10-match EPL slate to choose from this weekend.
Notable fixtures include West Ham United vs. Manchester City, Manchester United vs. Brighton and Hove Albion and Everton vs. Arsenal.
But, for my two best bets this week, I’m looking to other fixtures.
That said, let’s dive into the picks. English Premier League odds are reflective at time of writing.
English Premier League Matchday 5 Betting Predictions
Wolverhampton Wanderers Moneyline (+475) vs. Liverpool
Make sure to supplement this with a bet on Wolves +1.25 or +1.5, but I rate them a live underdog at home.
Liverpool’s lackluster defense – which will miss Virgil van Dijk and possibly Trent Alexander-Arnold this weekend – makes them difficult to trust as a favorite, particularly away from home.
Last season, Liverpool posted only a +0.07 expected goal differential per 90 minutes away from Anfield, per fbref.com. In their trip to Wolves, they lost 3-0 and surrendered two expected goals.
Plus, Wolves looked decent in their lone home match against Brighton. Although they lost 4-1, the expected goals battle finished only 2.2 to 2.1 in favor of Brighton.
Additionally, in a Matchday 1 trip to Manchester United, Wolves equaled the Red Devils, a side similar to Liverpool, on expected goals.
With extra time to prepare, expect a strong showing from Wolves. Back them at +450 or better on the moneyline.
Nottingham Forest Moneyline (+120) vs. Burnley
This is a solid revenge spot for Forest, who lost 1-0 at the City Ground to Burnley in the League Cup.
But, manager Steve Cooper opted to rotate his team for that fixture. Talisman Taiwo Awoniyi and key attacker Morgan Gibbs-White both sat out, leaving Forest unable to create many chances.
Their presence in this fixture should bolster the hosts’ attack, which performed very well last season against poor sides.
In nine home matches against teams ranked 11th or lower in the table, the Tricky Trees created 1.37 expected goals per 90 minutes.
Their defense also looked quite good in their lone home match of this campaign as they surrendered a mere 0.5 expected goals to Sheffield, another promoted side.
Given Forest closed -115 against Sheffield, this feels too big an overreaction. Back them at +110 or better on the three-way moneyline.
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