- Everton is a 0.5-goal home underdog against Fulham.
- The underdog has won each of Fulham's last three EPL matches at Goodison Park.
- My Everton vs. Fulham prediction is the total over 2.5 goals.
Everton look to continue their unbeaten run in league play with a home fixture against Fulham on Matchday 9.
The Toffees captured a 2-0 win at Ipswich Town last weekend. That gives Sean Dyche’s side points in four straight league matches and two wins in the last three.
Fulham’s form is currently poor. After losing 3-2 at Manchester City, the Cottagers lost 3-1 at home to Aston Villa. That leaves Marco Silva’s side 10th in the table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Everton vs. Fulham prediction.
Premier League Odds: Everton vs. Fulham
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | +0.5 (-200) | 2.5 (-120) | +175 |
| Everton | -0.5 (+138) | 2.5 (-120) | +155 |
| Draw | +225 |
Premier League Betting: Everton vs. Fulham Prediction
Based on key absences in defense for both teams, my Everton vs. Fulham prediction is the pregame Total Over 2.5 Goals (-120).
Although both meetings between these clubs stayed under 2.5 goals last year, the results are deceiving.
A 0-0 draw in January saw the sides combine for 3.78 expected goals and 10 big scoring chances.
However, both sides struggled to find the target, with the match featuring only 1.13 post-shot xG.
The match at Goodison Park, however, was a much different story. Fulham won 1-0, but lost the xG battle 2.7-1.5 and the post-shot xG battle 3.3-1.1.
The good news for Fulham? Their attack is playing so well right now.
The Cottagers have cleared 1.6 xG in three of their previous four matches, including 2.6 at Manchester City!
Now they get a Tottenham side without Jarrad Branthwaite. Although Everton have kept clean sheets in consecutive matches, it has come against 3.3 expected goals.
Everton’s attack will also benefit from two Fulham absentees: Sasa Lukic and Joachim Anderson.
Given the strength of Everton’s metrics against Fulham last year, a strong offensive showing looks likely.
This game also matches a historically profitable system.
Since 2012, matches featuring a home underdog and a total of 2.5 goals are 62% the over, assuming the road’s team previous match cleared the total by at least 1.5 goals.
Just since the 2020 EPL season, those matches are 66% to the over, including 10-4 when Everton is involved in the match.
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