Everton vs. Newcastle Prediction, Odds: EPL Betting

On the heels of their first win of the season, Everton welcome Newcastle United to Goodison Park on Matchday 5. 

Buoyed by the return of Jarrad Branthwaite, Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-1 on Matchday 4 to escape the relegation zone. Still, they sit only a point from safety. 

Newcastle drew Manchester City 1-1 over the weekend and now look for their second road win in three tries. 

Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Everton vs. Newcastle United prediction. 

Premier League Odds: Everton vs. Newcastle

• Everton Moneyline: +210
• Newcastle Moneyline: +120
• Draw Moneyline: +260
• Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-160/+115)
• Both Teams to Score: Yes (-190), No (+135)

Premier League Betting: Everton vs. Newcastle Prediction

My Everton vs. Newcastle prediction is the Everton Moneyline (+210). Additionally, I’m supplementing it with a small bet on Everton Top-Half Finish (+800). 

Beginning with the Everton moneyline against Newcastle, this is equal parts a play on Everton at home as it is a fade of Newcastle on the road. 

Two weeks ago, Newcastle traveled to Fulham and looked awful. They were down 2-0 inside of 25 minutes and lost the post-shot expected goals battle 3.2-1.05, per fotmob.com. 

It also didn’t go well for Newcastle the last time they played at Goodison Park. They lost 3-0 and fell in expected goals 3.4-1.6 and post-shot xG 1.8-0.6. 

Everton also matches a historically profitable system in this spot. 

Since 2012, teams between -205 and +325 in August-October that played at home in their previous game are 58% SU, including 52% as an underdog, assuming three factors:

• The opponent’s previous game margin fell between -2 and +0
• The previous head-to-head result fell between +0 and +2
• The opponent closed as an underdog in their previous game

It’s also a nightmare spot for Newcastle. They face a midweek Cup match before traveling to Everton, while the Toffees have a full week between games.

Now for the adventurous bet: Everton to finish in the top half. 

To be clear, this is a small wager simply because the price is too high. While I believe it’s unlikely to win, there’s evidence to support it’s worth a flier. 

Everton returned Jarrad Branthwaite to the lineup against Crystal Palace. With Branthwaite, Everton are a far superior team. 

In their last 36 matches with him in the lineup, Everton are 13-9-14 (W-D-L). In the last eight without him, Everton finished 1-1-6 (W-D-L). 

Last season, Everton finished 10th in expected goal differential and ranked as the third unluckiest team in terms of goals saved above expected. 

There already seems to be some positive regression for their attack. Through six matches, they’ve scored 2.1 goals over post-shot expected. 

With Branthwaite, bettors should expect improvement for Everton’s defense, which is currently 16th in post-shot expected goals allowed. Last year, they ranked seventh. 

For those reasons, take a flier on Everton to improve their current standing a notch a top-half finish.  

Everton Record, Last 5 Matches

• Sept. 28 vs. Crystal Palace: 2-1, W
• Sept. 21 at Leicester City: 1-1, D
• Sept. 17 vs. Southampton: 1-1, D (EFL Cup, Southampton Advance)
• Sept. 14 at Aston Villa: 2-3, L
• Aug. 31 vs. Bournemouth: 2-3, L

Newcastle United Record, Last 5 Matches

• Sept. 28 vs. Manchester City: 1-1, D
• Sept. 21 at Fulham: 1-3, L
• Sept. 15 at Wolves: 2-1, W
• Sept. 1 vs. Tottenham: 2-1, W
• Aug. 28 at Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D (EFL Cup, Newcastle Advance)