- Fulham is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Aston Villa.
- Aston Villa has won each of its last five EPL Saturday away matches.
- My prediction for Fulham vs. Aston Villa is a Same Game Parlay.
Fulham looks to continue its unbeaten run at Craven Cottage with a home fixture against Aston Villa.
Marco Silva’s side fell 3-2 at Manchester City before the international break. That ended a five-match unbeaten run for Fulham, currently eighth in the table.
Aston Villa played to a 0-0 draw against Manchester United on Matchday 7, marking two straight draws for the club in league play.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Fulham vs. Aston Villa prediction.
Premier League Odds: Fulham vs. Aston Villa
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | -0.5 (+125) | 2.5 (-135) | +135 |
| Aston Villa | +0.5 (-175) | 2.5 (+100) | +190 |
| Draw | +250 |
Premier League Betting: Fulham vs. Aston Villa Prediction
Based on Fulham’s exquisite offensive metrics and Villa’s lackluster defense away from home, my prediction is a SGP: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-115).
Fulham have quietly created at least two expected goals in two of their previous three matches. In three home matches, they’ve yet to finish with fewer than 1.5 xG, per fbref.com.
That should allow for success against Aston Villa, which allowed 1.2 post-shot xG in their last road match against Ipswich Town.
Plus, Villa face an injury crisis in defense. Boubacar Kamara remains out and central defender Ezri Konsa is doubtful to appear.
The last time these teams met in a competitive match, Fulham created 1.55 expected goals.
But this is simultaneously a good opportunity to sell Fulham’s defense, which is currently fourth in post-shot xG allowed.
Villa has closed a market underdog twice this season and generated 1.6 expected goals per 90 in those fixtures.
Additionally, for all of Fulham’s defensive success this season, they’ve managed only a single clean sheet.
This game also matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since 2012, matches with a total set at 2.5 goals are 59% to the over, assuming two factors:
- The home team’s previous game margin fell between -8 and -1
- The away team’s average number of goals allowed is between 1.3 and 1.8
When those home teams saw their last match clear the total by at least 1.5 goals, the matches are 69-38 (65%) to the over.
As a result, I’ll pair both teams to score with the total over 2.5 goals at Craven Cottage. Bet this SGP at -130 or better.
Fulham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 5 at Manchester City: 2-3, L
- Sept. 28 at Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W
- Sept. 21 vs. Newcastle United: 3-1, W
- Sept. 17 at Preston: 1-1, D (EFL Cup, Fulham Advance)
- Sept. 14 vs. West Ham: 1-1, D
Aston Villa Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 6 vs. Manchester United: 0-0, D
- Oct. 2 vs. Bayern Munich: 1-0, W (Champions League)
- Sept. 29 at Ipswich Town: 2-2, D
- Sept. 24 at Wycombe: 2-1, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 21 vs. Wolves: 3-1, W
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