- Fulham is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Brighton.
- Brighton has won four of its last five EPL matches as an underdog.
- My Fulham vs. Brighton prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
Fulham, off a strong road result at Tottenham, host Brighton in the midweek at Craven Cottage.
Marco Silva’s side fell behind at Spurs over the weekend but snatched a late point with a second-half tally. That leaves Fulham 10th in the current league table.
Brighton played to a 1-1 draw against Southampton last Friday, ending a two-match winning streak. Still, the Seagulls sit fourth in the Premier League table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Fulham vs. Brighton prediction.
Fulham vs. Brighton Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | +0.5 (-175) | 2.5 (-165) | +188 |
| Fulham | -0.5 (+120) | 2.5 (+120) | +130 |
| Draw | +260 |
Fulham vs. Brighton Prediction
Based on Fulham’s absentees and Brighton’s strong record as an underdog, my Fulham vs. Brighton prediction is a SGP: Brighton Spread (+0.5) & Over 1.5 Goals (-110).
The crux of this play is the former leg, as Brighton finds itself in a historically profitable spot.
Since 2012, half-goal underdogs against previous road dogs are 74% ATS, assuming two factors:
- The underdog’s game number falls between 2 and 14
- The juice on the spread falls between -175 and -104
Shrink the sample down to the previous three seasons and those teams improve to 32-9 ATS (78%).
On Thursday, the Seagulls get a Fulham side missing a number of key players in the midfield.
Both Sasa Lukic and Tom Cairney are suspended, leaving Silva with few options to defend the middle of the park.
Without those players, Fulham faces a Brighton team that has posted strong offensive metrics as a road dog.
Fabian Huerzler’s side has closed a market dog in three straight road matches with two wins and a loss. In those three matches, Brighton created north of 1.5 post-shot xG twice.
The only failure in that span came at Liverpool, the best defense in the Premier League.
There’s a clear trend emerging with Brighton: strong offensive play leads to consistent results.
Brighton have scored at least two goals in eight of 13 league matches this year. In those eight games, Huerzler’s side avoided defeat seven times.
Fulham has also struggled against good teams since rejoining the English top flight. Over the last three seasons, Silva’s side is 8-25 SU against teams with a win percentage north of 45%.
As a result, back the visitors to earn a result in a relatively high-scoring contest.
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