- Fulham is a -0.5-goal favorite against Newcastle United.
- Newcastle earned 3-0 win in the last meeting, but played up a man for plurality.
- Why bettors should fade the Newcastle United defense on Saturday.
On Saturday at Craven Cottage, Fulham will seek revenge for a 3-0 road defeat at Newcastle United earlier this season.
Both teams experienced less-than-desirable results in the midweek.
Fulham lost 3-1 as road dogs to Nottingham Forest, while Newcastle United dropped points in a 1-1 draw against Everton.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Fulham vs. Newcastle United
- Fulham Moneyline: +145
- Newcastle United Moneyline: +165
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)
EPL Prediction – Fulham vs. Newcastle United
Fulham Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-115)
Newcastle’s defense is completely decimated by injuries and I’ll be looking to fade them for the foreseeable future.
The following defenders are out for Saturday’s match: Tino Livramento, Sven Botman, Jamaal Lascelles, Kieran Trippier and Matt Targett.
That leaves them needing to deploy two players – Dan Burn and Emil Krafth – out of position in their backline.
Although Fulham failed to score in the reverse fixture, it came because they had striker Raul Jimenez sent off on 22 minutes.
Recently, Fulham have incorporated Rodrigo Muniz into the Starting XI and they’ve begun to thrive against bad defenses.
With Muniz in the lineup, Fulham have played six games this season against the five worst defenses by non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.
They’ve cleared this number four times against such opponents, including three straight contests.
In terms of the underlying metrics, Fulham have created 1.42 expected goals per 90 in those six games.
Even more impressive – Fulham’s last three clearances against such opponents all came away from home.
Statistically, they’re a significantly more dangerous attack at home. To date, they’ve created 1.64 xG per 90 at Craven Cottage compared to only 1.08 away from home.
In addition, Newcastle have managed to keep only four teams under this number away from home.
Back a strong offensive effort from Fulham after a loss.
Fulham Form
April 2 at Nottingham Forest: 1-3, L
March 30 at Sheffield United: 3-3, D
March 16 vs. Tottenham: 3-0, W
March 9 at Wolves: 1-2, L
March 2 vs. Brighton: 3-0, W
Newcastle United Form
April 2 vs. Everton: 1-1, D
March 30 vs. West Ham United; 4-3, W
March 16 at Man City: 0-2, L (FA Cup)
March 11 at Chelsea: 2-3, L
March 2 vs. Wolves: 3-0, W
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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