- Ipswich Town is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Brighton.
- Seven of Brighton's last eight EPL matches as a favorite have resulted in a draw.
- My Ipswich Town vs. Brighton prediction is for Ipswich to cover the spread.
To close out the midweek Premier League slate, Ipswich Town host Brighton at Portman Road.
The Tractor Boys have enjoyed a strong run of form recently in the league. Two wins and a draw over their last five has vaulted Kieran McKenna’s side to 16 points.
Brighton’s form, meanwhile, has taken a dip. Four straight league matches have finished in a draw, with the Seagulls’ last league victory coming on November 23.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Ipswich Town vs. Brighton prediction.
Ipswich Town vs. Brighton Odds, Premier League
Ipswich Town vs. Brighton Prediction
Based on Ipswich Town’s ATS success as an underdog and Brighton’s injury concerns, my Ipswich Town vs. Brighton prediction is the Ipswich Spread (+0.5, -115).
Although Ipswich has struggled to pick up outright wins as underdogs, they’ve done well to consistently notch points.
McKenna’s side has closed at +350 or shorter on 10 occasions this season. They’ve only won once outright, but they’ve earned points in five of 10.
Now they get Brighton, who could play without as many as 12 first-team personnel on Thursday, including talisman Joao Pedro.
Even more concerning for Brighton is there’s a slight argument negative regression is on the way based on previous road performances.
Fabian Huerzler’s side owns a +0 road goal differential this season compared to a -5.1 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
The slight concerns are twofold.
First, Brighton’s post-shot xGDiff away from home sits at +0.3, suggesting performances have come in line with expectations.
Second, Brighton bossed Ipswich 2.45-0.1 at the Amex.
But history suggests the fact Ipswich, albeit very luckily, earned a point in that match renders them a live underdog at home.
Since 2012, half-goal home underdogs in match 19 onward that drew the last head-to-head meeting are 39-22 ATS.
Since the 2019 season, such dogs are 24-7 ATS, assuming their goals average falls between 0.8 and 1.5, including 18-4 between 0.8 and 1.1.
Given Ipswich are creating a goal per game, it’s the hosts or nothing on Thursday at Portman Road.
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