Leicester City vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Two teams off losses meet Saturday at the King Power Stadium as Leicester City hosts Aston Villa. 

Leicester fell 2-1 to Fulham on Matchday 2, while Villa dropped all three points at home against Arsenal. 

Historically, this series has produced myriad results. In the last six league meetings, Villa is 3-1-2 (W-D-L) against Leicester City. 

Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

Leicester City vs. Aston Villa Odds, Premier League

• Leicester City Moneyline: +333
• Aston Villa Moneyline: -130
• Draw Moneyline: +280
• Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)
• Both Teams to Score: Yes (-145), No (+100)

Leicester City vs. Aston Villa Prediction: Moneyline

My prediction for Saturday’s fixture is the Aston Villa Moneyline (-130). 

Villa lost 2-0 to Arsenal, but luck wasn’t on their side. Unai Emery’s side won the expected goals battle 1.28 to 0.87 and had a 0.8 post-shot xG attempt saved at 0-0. 

If Villa convert that chance and earn points, this line is likely much higher. 

That renders this a great buy-low opportunity on Villa, which is historically strong as a favorite. 

Under Emery, Villa is 24-12 SU as a favorite, including 13-3 when they drew or lost their last game. 

History also tells us to buy short favorites early in the season under two situations. 

First, favorites priced between -250 and -103 in games 2-10 are 80.7% SU since 2012, assuming three factors:

• The opponent’s previous game margin is between -8 and -1
• The previous head-to-head result is between +0 and +4
• The previous game the opponent was the underdog

Even when those teams are between -150 and -103, they’re still 33-13 SU. 

Additionally, early line movements tend to signal the correct side. 

Since 2012, teams that see an upward price movement in games 1-8 are 64.1% SU, assuming three factors:

• The previous game the opponent was the underdog
• The previous head-to-head result is between +0 and +1
• The opponent’s previous game margin is between -8 and -1

Favorites are 72.2% SU within that sample, including 22-10 SU at -150 or shorter. 

For those reasons, take Villa as a short road favorite against a declining Leicester team. 

In addition to the Aston Villa moneyline, I predict this match will finish over 2.5 goals (-135). 

Last year, Villa was a profitable over bet when they closed as a favorite. In 25 games they were favored, 21 finished over 2.5 goals, including seven of nine as a road favorite. 

Off a loss, they should dominate Leicester’s weak defense. In two matches, the Foxes have surrendered 1.9 psxG per 90 minutes, per fotmob.com. 

That said, I don’t trust Aston Villa’s defense without Boubacar Kamara. 

Dating back to last season, Villa have kept only two clean sheets without Kamara in the lineup, both of which were undeserved based on psxG. 

This total also matches a historically profitable system. 

Since 2012, overs in matches featuring a total of 2.5 and a home dog are 62.7% to the over, assuming two factors:

• The underdog’s previous game margin is between -3 and -1
• The favorite’s previous game margin is between -2 and +1

Just in the last two seasons, that system improves to 66.7% to the over, including 17-3 (85%) last year.

Leicester City Record, Last 5 Matches

• Aug. 24 at Fulham: 1-2, L
• Aug. 19 vs. Tottenham: 1-1, D
• Aug. 10 at Lens: 0-3, L (Friendly)
• Aug. 3 at Augsburg: 0-1, L (Friendly)
• July 26 vs. Palermo: 0-1, L (Friendly)

Aston Villa Record, Last 5 Matches

• Aug. 24 vs. Arsenal: 0-2, L
• Aug. 17 at West Ham United: 2-1, W
• Aug. 10 at Dortmund: 0-2, L (Friendly)
• Aug. 7 vs. Athletic Club: 3-2, W (Friendly)
• Aug. 3 at America: 0-1, L (Friendly)

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Leicester City odds and Aston Villa odds! 

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

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