- Leicester City is a +0.5-goal underdog against Bournemouth.
- Bournemouth has won three of the last four meetings against Leicester City.
- I predict Bournemouth’s moneyline is the best bet for Saturday’s fixture.
Bournemouth, looking for their second straight win, travel to the King Power Stadium on Saturday to face Leicester City.
The Cherries raced out to a 3-0 halftime lead on Monday against Southampton. Ultimately, the match finished 3-1 in favor of the hosts.
Leicester, meanwhile, gave Arsenal a challenge and found themselves tied 2-2 at one point. However, two concessions in stoppage time resigned the Foxes to a 4-2 defeat.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Leicester City vs. Bournemouth prediction.
Premier League Odds: Leicester City vs. Bournemouth
- Leicester City Moneyline: +210
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +115
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-165/+120)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-190), No (+130)
Premier League Betting: Leicester City vs. Bournemouth Prediction
My Leicester City vs. Bournemouth prediction is the Bournemouth Moneyline (+115).
The last time these teams played, Bournemouth dominated a goalless draw. In the FA Cup meeting on Feb. 27, Bournemouth won the expected goals battle 2.2 to 1.17.
They struggled to put shots on target in that match and were ultimately knocked out in extra time.
However, the last two performances by Bournemouth against Leicester leave me quite encouraged.
The last league meeting between these clubs – a worse version of Bournemouth against a better version of Leicester – saw the Cherries win 1-0.
They ran unlucky in that match, though, as expected goals finished 2.01-0.58, with post-shot expected goals finishing 2.1-0.71 in Bournemouth’s favor.
Plus, Bournemouth is 2-0 SU as a market favorite this season with a +0.65 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes.
They also match a number of historically profitable systems.
Chief amongst the four matches: favorites between -230 and +172 in games 2-20 are 67.5% SU since 2012, assuming three factors:
- The previous head-to-head margin was +0 or +1
- The favorite’s previous game margin is between +1 and +4
- The underdog’s previous game margin is between -4 and -1
Those teams are still 31-26 SU between +100 and +172, suggesting Bournemouth’s win equity is higher than their implied percentage of 46.5%.
Take the Cherries to earn all three points before a run of three straight matches as underdogs.
Leicester City Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 28 at Arsenal: 2-4, L
- Sept. 24 at Walsall: 0-0, D (EFL Cup, Walsall Advance)
- Sept. 21 vs. Everton: 1-1, D
- Sept. 14 at Crystal Palace: 2-2, D
- Aug. 31 vs. Aston Villa: 1-2, L
Bournemouth Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 30 vs. Southampton; 3-0, W
- Sept. 21 at Liverpool: 0-3, L
- Sept. 14 vs. Chelsea: 0-1, L
- Aug. 31 at Everton: 3-2, W
- Aug. 28 at West Ham: 0-1, L (EFL Cup)
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