- Leicester City is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Fulham.
- Fulham has scored at least one goal in each of its last nine EPL away matches.
- My Leicester City vs. Fulham prediction is for the match to clear 2.5 goals.
Off a loss as road favorites against West Ham, Fulham continues their travels with a weekend meeting against Leicester.
Despite a strong offensive showing, Fulham’s defensive mishaps resigned them to a 3-2 midweek defeat against the Hammers, a result that leaves them ninth in the table.
Leicester’s midweek result has yet to be determined. On Wednesday, Ruud van Nistelrooy’s squad faces a home meeting against Crystal Palace.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Leicester City vs. Fulham prediction.
Leicester City vs. Fulham Odds, Premier League
Leicester City vs. Fulham Prediction
Based on Fulham’s offensive success and Leicester’s recent offensive strength under a new manager, my Leicester City vs. Fulham prediction is Over 2.5 Goals (-155).
While it’s a lot of juice to lay, there’s a clear game script that sees this match finish over the total.
Fulham created 1.7 expected goals and three big scoring chances against a West Ham side not dissimilar from Leicester defensively.
For the season, the Hammers rank 17th in expected goals against, while Leicester ranks 18th, with one game in hand.
In the prior meeting against Leicester, Fulham created 1.8 xG and three big chances, per fotmob.com.
At the same time, Fulham surrendered 0.6 xG and 1.7 post-shot xG to the Foxes offense, which has enjoyed a resurgence under van Nistelrooy.
Not inclusive of their match against Palace, Leicester has scored at least once in all but two matches under their new manager.
From a metrics standpoint, the Foxes have generated at least 0.8 xG in three of four home matches.
History also likes this match finishing over the total.
Since 2012, matches featuring a total of 2.5 goals are 76-35 (68.5%) to the over, assuming three factors:
- The road team’s average number of goals falls between 1.5 and 2.5
- The road team’s last match cleared the total by between 1.5 and 5.5 goals
- The home team is an underdog.
Just since 2020, those matches are 53-20 (73%) to the over, including 28-4 when the road team’s goals average falls between 1.5 and 1.8.
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