- Liverpool is a -0.5 goal favorite against Arsenal.
- Arsenal sit atop the league table and own the third-best road record.
- Liverpool have yet to drop all three points at Anfield this season.
Before Saturday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide a Liverpool vs. Arsenal prediction.
Arsenal lead the English Premier League on 39 points. In their last match, manager Mikel Arteta’s side captured a 2-0 home win over Brighton & Hove Albion.
That marks Arsenal’s fifth win in their last six games.
Liverpool, meanwhile, drew Manchester United 0-0 over the weekend, despite taking 32 shots against the Red Devils.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Saturday’s encounter at Anfield and my best bet for the match.
Liverpool vs. Arsenal Betting Odds
- Liverpool to Win: +135
- Arsenal to Win: +180
- Liverpool vs. Arsenal Draw: +260
- The Liverpool vs. Arsenal Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Liverpool vs. Arsenal Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Liverpool vs. Arsenal is a Same Game Parlay: Liverpool Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals (+115).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
There’s something quirky about the odds for this game.
Over 2.5 goals is a heavy favorite and is currently priced at -155. Oddsmakers expect both teams to score as well, with the “yes” side of that market priced at -175.
However, if you look at the associated team totals – one would assume at least one would be juiced to the over given the price on over 2.5 goals – that’s not the case.
Liverpool’s team total is juiced to under 1.5 goals – it’s currently -140 – while Arsenal’s is also juiced to under 1.5 – it’s currently -175.
Those odds tell me Liverpool won’t do worse than a draw in this match, which is supported by the fact they’ve earned a point in all eight home matches this season.
In tandem with those odds, I believe bettors will see a lower-scoring game than expected.
That belief is largely driven by outstanding underlying metrics from both defenses.
Arsenal rank first in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 minutes.
In trips to Newcastle United, Aston Villa and Chelsea, they held all three opponents under 1.3 non-penalty expected goals.
As for Liverpool, they’re fourth in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 minutes. That should benefit them against an Arsenal attack ninth in the corresponding offensive category.
Given those trends, I’m shocked this same game parlay is available in plus-money. Back it so long as it remains available at +100 or better.
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