Soccer Predictions, Picks, Odds: Premier League, Matchday 34

Below are my English Premier League best bets for Matchday 34 based on EPL odds.

It’s a limited slate with two FA Cup semifinal fixtures this weekend, but there are seven matches in which bettors can get involved. Headlining the slate are Wolves vs. Arsenal on Saturday and Fulham vs. Liverpool on Sunday.

Check out the full schedule below along with my picks.

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

Luton Town vs. Brentford Prediction

Both Teams to Score – “Yes,” Second Half (+155) | Second Half Highest Scoring Half (-105) 

Although it’s only a two-match sample, Luton Town’s defense has held up well early at home. 

In their most recent first half against Bournemouth, the two sides combined for only 0.44 expected goals in the first half, with both failing to score. 

The proverbial floodgates opened in the second half with three goals off 2.23 post-shot expected goals between the two sides. 

Similar trends occurred in Luton’s previous home game against Wolves. The first half featured only 0.53 expected goals, with 2.2 xG in the second half.

Wolves vs. Arsenal Prediction

Same Game Parlay: Arsenal Moneyline & Over 2.5 Goals (-120) 

Although Arsenal faces a midweek trip to Germany, this qualifies as a great buy-low spot on the Gooners. 

Two systems contribute to my thinking for this Same Game Parlay. 

First is that good teams off a loss are exceptional at winning outright when they won the previous meeting. 

Since the 2021-22 season, favorites with a winning percentage higher than 45% are 36-12 SU, assuming three other factors:

• The previous head-to-head result was between +1 and +5
• The team’s previous game margin was between -1 and -5
• The closing moneyline is between -300 and +135

Everton vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction

Everton Team Total Under 1.5 Goals (-135)

Everton created next-to-nothing in the reverse fixture, and I struggle to see a scenario where they score twice. 

Since the calendar turned to 2024, manager Sean Dyche’s side has scored two or more goals in a match only once. 

That came at home against Tottenham, who sit 13th in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com. 

Forest is a much more disciplined defense. They’re sixth in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes and have drastically improved under Nuno Espirito Santo. 

Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth Prediction

Total Over 3.5 Goals (+105) 

Since losing Boubacar Kamara to injury, this Aston Villa defense has taken a massive dip in form. 

Over their last nine Premier League fixtures, manager Unai Emery’s side has yet to hold a team under 1.5 expected goals, according to fbref.com. 

Since the calendar turned to 2024, they’ve held only one opponent under 1.2 expected goals (Everton) and have conceded 1.87 expected goals per 90 minutes in 13 games. 

That’s going to put them in trouble against a Bournemouth attack that dominated them in the previous meeting.

Crystal Palace vs. West Ham Prediction

Crystal Palace Moneyline (+115)

This shapes up as a great scheduling spot for Palace, who face West Ham on short rest with their key attackers back in the lineup. 

The Hammers have Bayer Leverkusen at home on Thursday in the Europa League, down 2-0 on aggregate. 

In theory, manager David Moyes could wave the white flag, but the deficit is small enough that I expect he’ll deploy his key personnel. 

That means a lackluster West Ham defense will travel on short rest to take on a high-flying Crystal Palace attack.

Fulham vs. Liverpool Prediction

Liverpool to Win & Both Teams to Score (+150) 

The current run of finishing from Liverpool is insanely worrying, but I’m hopeful their underlying metrics eventually catch up. 

Including their Europa League home match against Atalanta, manager Jurgen Klopp’s side has scored two goals off 9.14 expected in their last three games. 

In terms of their Premier League form, Liverpool enters this game having scored 72 goals off 73.4 expected, rendering them a slight positive regression candidate. 

In their last five Premier League matches, Liverpool have created 2.45 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Over that span, they’ve scored six goals from open play off 12.27 non-penalty expected goals, per fotmob.com.