Soccer Predictions, Picks, Odds: Premier League, Matchday 33

min read
Tottenham's James Maddison, centre, celebrates with Tottenham's Son Heung-min after scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, Monday, Oct. 23, 2023.
(Kin Cheung/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 11, 2024, 5:31 PM
  • Why bettors should expect goals at St. James' Park & Anfield.
  • Will Aston Villa's road woes continue against Arsenal?
  • The case for buying low on Brighton on the road against Burnley.

Below are my English Premier League best bets for Matchday 33 based on EPL odds.

Headlining the weekend slate are Newcastle United vs. Tottenham and Bournemouth vs. Manchester United on Saturday. Then, Arsenal hosts Aston Villa on Sunday before Chelsea welcomes Everton to London on Monday.

Check out the full schedule below along with my picks.

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

Newcastle United vs. Tottenham Prediction

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-115)

History says this game has a better-than-not chance of clearing 3.5 goals for the third straight meeting. 

Recently, overs have proved particularly profitable in games featuring a home underdog taking on a good offense. 

Since the 2021-22 season, the over is 60% when the home team is an underdog, and the away team’s average number of goals is higher than 1.7. 

That system has proved most profitable this season. Sample the 80 games that qualify and bettors will find 51 cleared the pregame total.

Man City vs. Luton Town Prediction

LEAN Manchester City Spread (-2.5, -130)

This is a tricky one to call – metrics say City, but history says Luton Town. 

Only once this season have Luton Town faced a City team with both Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne in the lineup. 

That came in the FA Cup, which saw City score six goals off 15 shots on target and 5.41 post shot expected goals, per fotmob.com. 

Although Luton Town scored twice, I attribute that to a lack of Rodri in the lineup for City and the fact Luton were 3-0 down after 40 minutes.

Burnley vs. Brighton Prediction

Brighton Moneyline (-105)

Although Brighton didn’t earn a win against Burnley at home, the metrics suggest they should have. 

Manager Roberto de Zerbi’s side won the expected goals battle 2.8 to 0.6 and put 11 shots on target to Burnley’s three. 

The post shot expected goals battle proved even more glaring as Brighton scored a solitary goal off four post shot expected goals, per fotmob.com, without a penalty kick. 

In terms of the psxGDiff, Brighton finished with a +2.9 differential for that match vs. a +0 actual differential for the game.

Bournemouth vs. Manchester United Prediction

Bournemouth Draw, No Bet (-130)

Although United captured an impressive draw against Liverpool, history says it should be Bournemouth or nothing for bettors. 

I question if the Cherries can earn maximum points in this game, but it’s unlikely they drop all three points. 

Since the 2012-13 season, home teams sitting between +150 and -150 in games 20-38 that earned a win by three or more goals in the previous game are 26-14 SU. 

In those 40 games, those home teams have captured at least one point 34 times.

Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace Prediction

Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals | LEAN Crystal Palace Spread (+1.5, +120) – Wait for Lineups

The market hasn’t caught up to Crystal Palace when they have both Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise in their Starting XI. 

The pair has started in four games this season. In those contests, both teams have scored and the total has cleared 2.5 goals all four times. 

Although the level of defensive opposition leaves something to be desired – the four opponents are Brentford, Chelsea, Luton Town and Sheffield United – I’m confident Palace will score on Sunday.

The first factor worth considering is that Palace played very well offensively against Liverpool at home.

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa Prediction

Arsenal Spread (-1.5, -145) – Wait for Lineups

Although it’s a lot of juice to lay with the hosts, I’ll be surprised if they don’t win outright on Sunday. 

A cover is more difficult to predict, especially with a Wednesday Champions League trip to Munich looming, but history says it’s a good spot for manager Mikel Arteta’s side. 

The first factor to note here is that, under Arteta, Arsenal is 7-0 SU at home in games immediately following a win by three or more goals and 10-2 SU irrespective of venue.

Chelsea vs. Everton Prediction

Everton 2H Over 0.5 (-110) | Look for Everton +1.5 Live

From a spread standpoint, this game is quite interesting to me. 

Chelsea find themselves in a historically profitable moneyline range. 

Over the last four seasons, teams sitting between -131 and -174 are 67% SU, including 23-10 when they lost the previous meeting. 

However, Everton have looked good this season as dogs against teams they either drew or beat in the previous head-to-head meeting.

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

Whether you’re a first-time bettor, casual fan, or longtime diehard, there are soccer odds for everyone at BetMGM.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.