Soccer Predictions, Picks, Odds: English Premier League

Below are my English Premier League best bets for Matchday 37 based on EPL odds.

Arsenal and Man City continue their title battle with both facing road fixtures this weekend. City open the 10-game weekend slate against Fulham while Arsenal travels to face Manchester United on Sunday.

Elsewhere, Aston Villa hosts Liverpool on Monday Night Football and Tottenham looks to end a four-match losing streak against Burnley.

Check out the full schedule below along with my picks.

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

Fulham vs. Man City  Prediction

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-115) 

Perhaps their premature exit from the Champions League was a blessing in disguise for Manchester City’s attack.

Recently, City have shown they can boss bad defenses. Even if you remove their two penalties against Wolves, bettors will find they generated 3.17 post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com.

Although they created only 2.3 combined xG at Brighton and Forest, both of those teams rank sixth or better in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 minutes.

Newcastle vs. Brighton Prediction

Two-Leg Moneyline Parlay: Newcastle & Arsenal (+115) 

Newcastle United is the crux of this play, but -185 is a touch rich for my liking.

As a result, I’ll use Arsenal to drive down the price. Two systems suggest Arsenal will win on Sunday, which you can find in my Arsenal vs. Manchester United Prediction.

Essentially, I’m not going to let one performance from Brighton sway my thinking they’re on cruise control through the end of the season.

I attribute their win against Villa to the fact Brighton received a massive rest edge over Villa, who played a Thursday home match before their road fixture at Brighton last Sunday.

West Ham vs. Luton Town Prediction

West Ham to Win & Both Teams to Score (+180) | Total Over 3.5 Goals (+105)

Betting West Ham is quite uncomfortable, but there’s an argument to be made that they’re a good home side with proper rest.

Manager David Moyes’ side ran unlucky in their last home match against Liverpool based on underlying metrics.

Although the match finished 2-2, the Hammers won the post-shot expected goals battle 2.6 to 0.9.

The last time they played a home match with at least six days between games? February 26 vs. Brentford — a 4-2 home win where West Ham created 2.4 post-shot expected goals.

Tottenham vs. Burnley Prediction

Same Game Parlay: Tottenham Moneyline & Tottenham Over 6.5 Shots on Target (-110) 

Spurs won the reverse fixture 5-2 and it’s difficult to foresee a different outcome on Saturday in North London.

For all of their issues this season, manager Ange Postecoglou’s side has played very well as home favorites.

Sample 10 home games against sides 11th or worse in the current Premier League table and bettors will find Tottenham are 9-1 SU, including three straight wins.

Conversely, Burnley have struggled to pick up results on the road against good teams. In road contests against sides sixth or better, the Clarets are 0-5 SU.

Wolves vs. Crystal Palace Prediction

Crystal Palace Draw, No Bet (-135)

This line makes absolutely no sense to me.

Palace are far and away the team in better form and thoroughly dominated Wolves when these sides last met.

In a September fixture at Selhurst Park, Palace won 3-2 and won the post-shot expected goals battle 3.88 to 0.73, according to fotmob.com.

Plus, although they took place at opposite venues, these teams have a recent common opponent.

Palace, at home against Manchester City, posted a -0.83 non-penalty expected goal differential. Worth noting, however, is that Michael Olise only played 15 minutes and change in that game.

Bournemouth vs. Brentford Prediction

Bournemouth Moneyline (-105)

This qualifies as a great buy-low spot on the Cherries for their final home game of the season.

Put simply: there’s a stark contrast between home Bournemouth and road Bournemouth.

With one match left to play, manager Andoni Iraola’s side has a +0.2 expected goal differential per 90 at home compared to a -0.35 xGDiff per 90 on the road.

Plus, they’re a positive regression candidate at the Vitality Stadium.

Entering Saturday’s match, they have an even home expected goal differential compared to a +3.5 expected goal differential.

Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea Prediction

LEAN Nottingham Forest Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+120)

The price isn’t quite good enough for me to get involved, but this is what I would bet if you forced a play from me.

Slightly concerning is that Chelsea’s defense has looked much improved recently.

In their last three games — albeit with two at home — they’ve surrendered under one post-shot expected goal in all three.

Opponent shot quality is low, too. The 3.6 expected goals they’ve conceded over that run has come off 41 shots, or 0.09 xG/ shot.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal Prediction

Two-Leg Moneyline Parlay: Newcastle United & Arsenal (+115) | Arsenal Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+100) 

To close the loop on my Newcastle vs. Brighton Prediction, I love using Arsenal as a parlay piece this week.

Two systems lead me to make that claim.

First is that over the last three seasons, road favorites off a multi-goal win as favorites that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 54-24 SU.

Additionally, dogs off a loss by three or more goals are 0-44 SU against the three-way moneyline, assuming their opponent won by three or more in their last game.

In theory, United could eke out a draw on Sunday, but they’ll have to do it against an Arsenal team that’s 23-6 SU as a favorite this season.

Aston Villa vs. Liverpool Prediction

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-135) 

Right now, the Aston Villa defense can’t stop anyone, even at home. In their last eight Premier League fixtures at Villa Park, they’ve surrendered 1.87 expected goals per 90 minutes.

They’ve particularly struggled at home against competent attacks. This calendar year, Villa have played four attacks averaging at least 1.5 non-penalty xG.

Sample only the minutes played at 11v11 and bettors will find Villa allowed 1.7 post-shot expected goals.

In those four contests, they’ve allowed all four teams to score at least two goals with three reaching three or more goals.