Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds, Pick | EPL

min read
(AP Photo/Ian Walton)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 10, 2024, 2:01 PM
  • Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
  • Chelsea has won two straight games, but lost 1-0 to Forest in the reverse fixture.
  • The case for a strong showing from the Forest attack.

For Saturday’s standalone Premier League fixture, Nottingham Forest welcomes Chelsea to the City Ground as they attempt to put a stranglehold on safety. 

Both teams enter this penultimate fixture off strong results. Chelsea has earned two straight wins, including last weekend’s 5-0 win over West Ham, to give hope for a Europa League spot. 

As for Forest, they ended a four-match winless run last weekend with a 3-1 win over Sheffield United to all but guarantee safety. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s clash. 

EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest

  • Chelsea Moneyline: +100
  • Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +230
  • Draw Moneyline: +290
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)

Premier League Prediction – Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest

LEAN Nottingham Forest Over 1.5 Goals (+120)

The price isn’t quite good enough for me to get involved, but this is what I would bet if you forced a play from me. 

Slightly concerning is that Chelsea’s defense has looked much improved recently. 

In their last three games — albeit with two at home — they’ve surrendered under one post-shot expected goal in all three. 

Opponent shot quality is low, too. The 3.6 expected goals they’ve conceded over that run has come off 41 shots, or 0.09 xG/ shot. 

For the entire season, Chelsea are sitting on 0.11 xGA per shot, so improvement has occurred recently. 

The big worry? Chelsea’s defense has lacked similar prowess away from home compared to their efforts at Stamford Bridge. 

At home, the Blues are conceding 1.26 expected goals per 90 minutes. On the road, the average balloons to 1.78 expected goals per 90 minutes, per 

Although they were unlucky to concede two goals to Aston Villa in their previous fixture, they’ve really struggled as a road favorite. 

Both Sheffield United and Brentford cleared this number against the Blues while creating 3.2 expected goals and 3.6 post-shot expected goals combined. 

When bettors last saw Nottingham Forest at home, they found ample room to operate against Manchester City’s defense. 

They struggled to hit the target and challenge City’s keeper, but the fact they created 1.9 xG against the league’s second-best defense is a feat. 

Before that match, Forest cleared this number against both Wolves and Fulham, sides that are closer to Chelsea’s defensive metrics for the season. 

All told, the Tricky Trees have cleared this number in 10 of 18 home games with the Blues allowing their opponent to clear it in 12 of 17 road contests. 

For those reasons, it would be the Forest team total or nothing. However, given Chelsea’s recent defensive improvements, it’s a pass right now. 

Chelsea Form 

May 5 vs. West Ham: 5-0, W

May 2 vs. Tottenham: 2-0, W

April 27 at Aston Villa: 2-2, D

April 23 at Arsenal: 0-5, L

April 20 vs. Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)

Nottingham Forest Form

May 4 at Sheffield United: 3-1, W

April 28 vs. Manchester City: 0-2, L

April 21 at Everton: 0-2, L

April 13 vs. Wolves: 2-2, D

April 7 at Tottenham: 1-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.