- Liverpool is a -1.5-goal favorite against Newcastle United.
- Liverpool earned all three points in a 2-0 midweek win against Burnley.
- Newcastle suffered an embarrassing 3-1 loss at home to Nottingham Forest on Tuesday.
Before Monday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide a Liverpool vs. Newcastle United prediction.
Liverpool are coming off a positive 2-0 win in the midweek at Burnley and now return home, where they’re 7-2-0 (W-D-L) this season.
As for Newcastle United, the train is starting to fall off the tracks. At home against Nottingham Forest on Tuesday, they lost 3-1 while allowing 3.5 expected goals.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Monday’s encounter at Anfield, along with my best bet for the match.
Liverpool vs. Newcastle United Betting Odds
- Liverpool to Win: -225
- Newcastle United to Win: +500
- Liverpool vs. Newcastle United Draw: +380
- The Liverpool vs. Newcastle United Over/Under is 3.5 Goals
Liverpool vs. Newcastle United Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Liverpool vs. Newcastle United is Liverpool Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+120).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Disclaimer: I only like this bet if Joelinton remains out of the Starting XI for Newcastle United.
If he doesn’t play, bettors should say a prayer for Newcastle United in this match.
Recently, opponents have torn them apart when Newcastle United is forced to travel.
Over their last five Premier League road fixtures, they’re allowed 2.24 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, per fotmob.com.
Across that span, they’ve held only one team under one non-penalty expected goal (Wolves) while seeing two teams create at least three expected goals (Everton, Tottenham).
Even against Luton Town, a side creating only 0.84 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, they surrendered 1.5 non-penalty expected goals.
The defense also fell apart at home against Nottingham Forest, who created 3.5 expected goals in the midweek at St. James’ Park.
Up until that point, the Magpies ranked second in the Premier League in home expected goals against.
Now they travel to face a Liverpool team that exploited their defense whilst down a man in the last head-to-head meeting.
At St. James’ Park – where Newcastle are generally better defensively – Liverpool created 1.75 post-shot expected goals down to 10 men.
Through nine home matches this season, Liverpool have created 21 expected goals, the second-best mark in the league.
They’ve also notched at least three goals in six of those nine games.
Assuming Liverpool faces a favorable lineup, I’ll continue to fade Newcastle’s defense until they prove capable of playing well away from home.
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