Liverpool vs. Burnley Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Liverpool's Diogo Jota, left, celebrates scoring his sides second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Burnley and Liverpool at Turf Moor stadium in Burnley, England, Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 08, 2024, 4:41 PM
  • Liverpool is a -2.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
  • Liverpool dominated Burnley in the last head-to-head meeting.
  • Burnley have struggled to keep it close early on the road.

Ahead of Saturday’s match at Anfield, I’m here to provide a Liverpool vs. Burnley prediction. 

Hosts Liverpool enter this game off a rare loss — a 3-1 defeat at Arsenal in a match that saw Ibrahima Konate sent off. He’ll miss Saturday’s match as a result. 

As for Burnley, they fell behind early against Fulham 2-0 at home but salvaged a late draw thanks to a strong second half. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds for Saturday’s match and my best bet. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Burnley

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -600
  • Burnley Moneyline: +1400
  • Draw Moneyline: +700
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-130/-110)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Burnley

First Half: Liverpool to Win & Burnley Not to Score (-135)

Full disclosure: my main preference is Liverpool’s first half spread (-1), but this market offers decent viability as well. 

The last time these sides met at Turf Moor, Liverpool completely dominated the opening half. 

The Reds generated 1.84 non-penalty post shot expected goals at Turf Moor while limiting Burnley to zero shots on target in the first half. 

Through their first 12 road EPL fixtures, that remains their best output in the first half. 

Sample Liverpool’s three matches this season against teams 18th or worse in expected goal differential, and bettors will find they have a +1.35 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes in the first half. 

Even more encouraging – all three of those games came away from home. 

Now Liverpool gets a shot at home, where they have a +1.9 nppsxGdiff/90 minutes in their last two home fixtures. 

In those games, they’ve allowed only one shot on target in those two halves combined. 

On the flip side, Burnley’s last match came against Manchester City. In that match, they posted a -1.55 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential, per fotmob.com. 

Even at home against Fulham, Burnley created only 0.04 non-penalty post shot xG in the first half. 

Given they failed to put a shot on target in the first half against Man City, expect a slow start for manager Vincent Kompany’s side. 

Liverpool Form 

Feb. 4 at Arsenal: 1-3, L

Jan. 31 vs. Chelsea, 4-1, W

Jan. 21 at Bournemouth: 4-0, W

Jan. 1 vs. Newcastle: 4-2, W

Dec. 26 at Burnley: 2-0, W

Burnley Form

Feb. 3 vs. Fulham: 2-2, D

Jan. 31 at Man City: 1-3, L

Jan. 12 vs. Luton Town: 1-1, D

Dec. 30 at Aston Villa: 2-3, L

Dec. 26 vs. Liverpool: 0-2, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
BrentfordLiverpoolFeb. 177:30 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyArsenalFeb. 1710:00 AMTurf Moor
FulhamAston VillaFeb. 1710:00 AMCraven Cottage
Newcastle BournemouthFeb. 1710:00 AMSt. James' Park
Nottingham ForestWest Ham UnitedFeb. 1710:00 AMThe City Ground
TottenhamWolvesFeb. 1710:00 AMTottenham Hotspur Stadium
Man CityChelseaFeb. 1712:30 PMEtihad Stadium
Sheffield UnitedBrighton & Hove AlbionFeb. 189:00 AMBramall Lane
Luton TownManchester UnitedFeb. 1811:30 AMKenilworth Road
EvertonCrystal PalaceFeb. 193:00 PMGoodison Park

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Liverpool FC16-6-25432
Manchester City16-4-35231
Arsenal FC16-4-45231
Tottenham Hotspur14-5-54715
Aston Villa FC14-4-64618
Manchester United13-2-9410
Newcastle United11-3-103612
West Ham United10-6-836-6
Brighton & Hove Albion9-8-7353
Chelsea FC10-4-10341
Wolverhampton9-5-1032-2
Fulham FC8-5-1129-6
Bournemouth7-6-1027-13
Brentford7-4-1225-5
Crystal Palace6-6-1224-16
Nottingham Forest5-6-1221-14
Luton Town5-5-1320-12
Everton8-5-1119-610 Point Deduction
Burnley FC3-4-1713-25
Sheffield United3-4-1713-38

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal13-11.5427-5.5836-6.500
Aston Villa14-10.5838-4.6676-6.500
Bournemouth13-10.5656-5.5457-5.583
Brentford8-15.3484-8.3334-7.364
Brighton & Hove Albion11-13.4587-5.5834-8.333
Burnley9-15.3752-10.1677-5.583
Chelsea11-13.4587-5.5834-8.333
Crystal Palace11-13.4585-7.4176-6.500
Everton11-13.4586-6.5005-7.417
Fulham13-11.5428-4.6675-7.417
Liverpool12-12.5007-5.5835-7.417
Luton Town15-8.6529-3.7506-5.545
Manchester City10-13.4344-7.3646-6.500
Manchester United10-14.4174-8.3336-6.500
Newcastle United11-13.4588-4.6673-9.250
Nottingham Forest11-13.4583-9.2508-4.667
Sheffield United13-11.5427-5.5836-6.500
Tottenham Hotspur16-8.6678-4.6678-4.667
West Ham United12-12.5007-5.5835-7.417
Wolverhampton Wanderers14-10.5837-5.5837-5.583

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.