Liverpool vs. Burnley Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Liverpool's Diogo Jota, left, celebrates scoring his sides second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Burnley and Liverpool at Turf Moor stadium in Burnley, England, Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 08, 2024, 4:41 PM
  • Liverpool is a -2.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
  • Liverpool dominated Burnley in the last head-to-head meeting.
  • Burnley have struggled to keep it close early on the road.

Ahead of Saturday’s match at Anfield, I’m here to provide a Liverpool vs. Burnley prediction. 

Hosts Liverpool enter this game off a rare loss — a 3-1 defeat at Arsenal in a match that saw Ibrahima Konate sent off. He’ll miss Saturday’s match as a result. 

As for Burnley, they fell behind early against Fulham 2-0 at home but salvaged a late draw thanks to a strong second half. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds for Saturday’s match and my best bet. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Burnley

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -600
  • Burnley Moneyline: +1400
  • Draw Moneyline: +700
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-130/-110)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Burnley

First Half: Liverpool to Win & Burnley Not to Score (-135)

Full disclosure: my main preference is Liverpool’s first half spread (-1), but this market offers decent viability as well. 

The last time these sides met at Turf Moor, Liverpool completely dominated the opening half. 

The Reds generated 1.84 non-penalty post shot expected goals at Turf Moor while limiting Burnley to zero shots on target in the first half. 

Through their first 12 road EPL fixtures, that remains their best output in the first half. 

Sample Liverpool’s three matches this season against teams 18th or worse in expected goal differential, and bettors will find they have a +1.35 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes in the first half. 

Even more encouraging – all three of those games came away from home. 

Now Liverpool gets a shot at home, where they have a +1.9 nppsxGdiff/90 minutes in their last two home fixtures. 

In those games, they’ve allowed only one shot on target in those two halves combined. 

On the flip side, Burnley’s last match came against Manchester City. In that match, they posted a -1.55 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential, per 

Even at home against Fulham, Burnley created only 0.04 non-penalty post shot xG in the first half. 

Given they failed to put a shot on target in the first half against Man City, expect a slow start for manager Vincent Kompany’s side. 

Liverpool Form 

Feb. 4 at Arsenal: 1-3, L

Jan. 31 vs. Chelsea, 4-1, W

Jan. 21 at Bournemouth: 4-0, W

Jan. 1 vs. Newcastle: 4-2, W

Dec. 26 at Burnley: 2-0, W

Burnley Form

Feb. 3 vs. Fulham: 2-2, D

Jan. 31 at Man City: 1-3, L

Jan. 12 vs. Luton Town: 1-1, D

Dec. 30 at Aston Villa: 2-3, L

Dec. 26 vs. Liverpool: 0-2, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.