- Liverpool is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Man City.
- The underdog has won each of Manchester City's last three EPL matches.
- My Liverpool vs. Man City prediction focuses on the Liverpool team total.
It’s arguably the marquee match of the Premier League season thus far, as Liverpool hosts Manchester City at Anfield.
Liverpool has earned three league wins on the bounce, and sits eight points clear at the top of the table. At home, the Reds are 5-0-1 (W-D-L) this season.
Manchester City finds itself in crisis. City has lost three straight in the league and is winless in six across all competitions. On Tuesday, they blew a 3-0 lead at home against Feyenoord.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Liverpool vs. Man City prediction.
Liverpool vs. Man City Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | +0.5 (-140) | 3.5 (+130) | +225 |
| Liverpool | -0.5 (+100) | 3.5 (-185) | +110 |
| Draw | +270 |
Liverpool vs. Man City Prediction
Based on Man City’s weak defensive record and Liverpool’s strong attacking metrics at home, my Liverpool vs. Man City prediction is Liverpool Over 1.5 Goals (-135).
Until proven otherwise, it should be assumed City will concede two expected goals against any competent opponent.
Just in league play this season, City has kept a clean sheet twice and has surrendered at least two tallies five times.
Most of those failures have come since Ballon D’Or winner Rodri tore his ACL. Across their previous six matches, Pep Guardiola’s side has conceded two or more goals four times.
The underlying metrics support that weak defensive record.
In those six games, City has conceded 11 goals off 10.4 expected and 11.3 post-shot xG. Over that period, City has kept only one opponent (Southampton) under 1.2 post-shot xG.
Now they face Liverpool, which created 2.7 xG and two post-shot xG in the last meeting at Anfield.
This season, Liverpool ranks first in post-shot xG per 90, third in xG per 90 minutes and fourth in non-penalty xG per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
That record has improved recently, even as the schedule has toughened.
Since their league match vs. Chelsea, Liverpool has created 1.88 xG per 90 minutes and 2.18 post-shot xG.
Even if you remove the match against Southampton from consideration, this is still a Liverpool side that created 1.7 post-shot xG per 90 against Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton and Aston Villa.
Those defenses are playing far better than Manchester City right now, and I suspect Liverpool’s attack continues to exploit Man City.
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