- Man City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Chelsea.
- Chelsea earned a point vs. City at Stamford Bridge and enter this game off a road win.
- Bet this Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s fixture.
Before two of England’s most decorated clubs meet on Saturday, I’m here to provide a Man City vs. Chelsea prediction.
In terms of their domestic form, both teams arrive fresh off wins.
City captured a 2-0 win over Everton last weekend and followed it with a 3-1 road win in the Champions League on Tuesday.
As for Chelsea, they came from behind to capture a 3-1 road win over Crystal Palace on Monday.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Chelsea
- Man City Moneyline: -275
- Chelsea Moneyline: +700
- Draw Moneyline: +425
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-160)
EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Chelsea
Same Game Parlay: Man City Moneyline & Man City Each Half Over 0.5 (-105)
I really worry about this Chelsea defense as they prepare to face one of the Premier League’s top attacks.
Although they’re coming off a road win against Crystal Palace in which they surrendered only 0.46 post shot expected goals, that’s an outlying performance.
In their previous road match against Liverpool, Chelsea surrendered at least one post-shot xG in both halves while allowing Liverpool to create 3.73 total psxG, per fotmob.com.
Sample the six fixtures preceding the Palace match and bettors will find Chelsea surrendered 14.55 non-penalty post shot expected goals.
In those games, they allowed four teams to surpass two non-penalty psxG’s and all six to surpass 1.6.
That’s going to put them in trouble against Man City, who notched 2.54 non-penalty psxG’s in the reverse fixture against Stamford Bridge.
From there, we move on to the Manchester City moneyline.
This is equal parts a play on City as it is a fade of Chelsea, who is 1-2 SU as a road underdog this season.
The lone win? At Tottenham in a match where Spurs saw two players sent off before the halftime whistle.
Finally, EPL home favorites playing two straight home matches are 64% straight up since the beginning of last season.
Back this parlay at -115 or better come Saturday.
Man City Form
Feb. 13 at FC Copenhagen: 3-1, W (UEFA Champions League)
Feb. 10 vs. Everton: 2-0, W
Feb. 5 at Brentford: 3-1, W
Jan. 31 vs. Burnley: 3-1, W
Jan. 26 at Tottenham: 1-0, W (FA Cup)
Chelsea Form
Feb. 12 at Crystal Palace: 3-1, W
Feb. 7 at Aston Villa: 3-1, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 4 vs. Wolves: 2-4, L
Jan. 31 at Liverpool: 1-4, L
Jan. 26 vs. Aston Villa: 0-0, D (FA Cup)
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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