Man City vs. Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

  • Man City is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Chelsea.
  • Manchester City has won eight of its last nine home matches following a win.
  • My Man City vs. Chelsea prediction is for Chelsea to cover the spread.

The marquee Premier League fixture of Matchday 23 sees Manchester City host Chelsea at the Etihad Stadium.

City throttled Ipswich Town 6-0 on Sunday, their second win in the last three matches. Given the margin of victory, City moved up to fourth in the league table.ย 

Chelsea avenged a 2-2 home draw against Bournemouth with three points against Wolves. The 3-1 win moved Chelsea up to fourth in the league table.ย 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs. Chelsea prediction.ย 

Man City vs. Chelsea Odds, Premier League

Man City vs. Chelsea Prediction

Based on Chelseaโ€™s success against Man City over the last two seasons and their strong underlying metrics, my Man City vs. Chelsea prediction is the Chelsea Spread (+0.5, -120).ย 

The Man City offense is humming at the moment, buoyed by the return of Kevin De Bruyne. That makes fading Pep Guardiolaโ€™s side so difficult.ย 

However, itโ€™s a nightmare spot for City. They travel to PSG for a midweek Champions League fixture on Wednesday and return home for a Saturday match against Chelsea.ย 

Over the last two seasons, City has struggled against the Blues.ย 

Sample three league meetings between these clubs and bettors will find City owns a +0.31 expected goal differential per 90 minutes and a -0.86 post-shot xGDiff per 90.ย 

Even if you throw out last yearโ€™s games, this is a City team that won 2-0 on Matchday 1. Yet, they posted a -0.24 xGDiff and +0.12 post-shot xGDiff, per fotmob.com.ย 

Home-field advantage will help those metrics, but thereโ€™s an argument Chelsea is the better team.ย 

Excluding their Monday fixture against Wolves, Chelsea owns a +0.58 xGDiff per 90 minutes and a +0.66 post-shot xGDiff per 90.ย 

City, meanwhile, owns a +0.45 xGDiff per 90 and a +0.56 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes.ย 

History also likes this spot taking Chelsea to cover.ย 

Since 2012, road dogs with a winning percentage between 40% and 57% are 24.5-5.5-3 (81.7%) ATS, assuming two factors:

  • The dogโ€™s previous margin in the last head-to-head meeting was -2
  • The dogโ€™s game number falls between 15 and 37

When those dogs are listed at +0.5, theyโ€™re 12-4 ATS. Just since 2021, those dogs are 11-3 ATS, including 9-2 ATS at +0.5.ย 

Pair those trends with Chelseaโ€™s rest edge, and bettors should trust the Blues as road dogs.

Premier League Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalFulhamApr. 12:45 p.m.Emirates Stadium
WolvesWest Ham UnitedApr. 12:45 p.m.Molineux
Nottingham ForestManchester UnitedApr. 13 p.m.The City Ground
BournemouthIpswich TownApr. 22:45 p.m.Vitality Stadium
Man CityLeicester CityApr. 22:45 p.m.Etihad Stadium
Newcastle UnitedBrentfordApr. 22:45 p.m.St. James' Park
SouthamptonCrystal PalaceApr. 22:45 p.m.St. Mary's Stadium
LiverpoolEvertonApr. 23 p.m.Anfield
ChelseaTottenhamApr. 33 p.m.Stamford Bridge

Premier League Against the Spread Records

TeamATS RecordATS%Home ATS RecordHome ATS%Road ATS RecordRoad ATS%
Arsenal11-13-646.7%4-7-440.0%7-6-253.3%
Aston Villa11-17-140.0%5-9-136.7%6-8-042.9%
Bournemouth17-11-160.3%7-7-050.0%10-4-170.0%
Brentford17-10-262.1%8-7-053.3%9-3-271.4%
Brighton & Hove Albion17-11-160.3%7-7-059.0%10-4-170.0%
Chelsea10-17-237.9%5-8-139.3%5-9-136.7%
Crystal Palace16-9-362.5%6-6-350.0%10-3-076.9%
Everton15-10-458.6%7-6-253.3%8-4-264.3%
Fulham17-10-361.7%7-8-046.7%9-3-370.0%
Ipswich Town11-16-241.4%4-11-026.7%7-5-257.1%
Leicester City12-16-143.1%5-10-033.3%7-6-153.6%
Liverpool15-13-153.4%6-7-146.4%9-6-060.0%
Manchester City9-20-031.0%4-10-028.6%5-10-033.3%
Manchester United12-14-446.7%6-7-246.7%6-7-246.7%
Newcastle United15-12-155.4%8-5-061.5%7-7-150.0%
Nottingham Forest20-10-066.7%10-5-066.7%10-5-066.7%
Southampton10-16-339.7%2-11-117.9%8-5-260.0%
Tottenham Hotspur11-17-139.7%5-9-136.7%6-8-042.9%
West Ham United15-14-151.7%5-9-136.7%10-5-066.7%
Wolverhampton Wanderers14-13-351.7%6-7-246.7%8-6-156.7%

Premier League Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Liverpool21-7-17042
Arsenal16-10-35829
Nottingham Forest16-6-75414
Chelsea14-7-84916
Manchester City14-6-94815
Newcastle United14-5-9479
Brighton12-11-6476
Fulham12-9-8455
Aston Villa12-9-845-4
Bournemouth12-8-94412
Brentford12-5-12415
Crystal Palace10-9-9393
Manchester United10-7-1237-3
Tottenham10-4-153412
Everton7-13-934-4
West Ham9-7-1334-16
Wolves7-5-1726-18
Ipswich Town3-8-1817-34
Leicester City4-5-2017-40
Southampton2-3-249-49

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.