Man City vs. Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

  • Man City is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Chelsea.
  • Manchester City has won eight of its last nine home matches following a win.
  • My Man City vs. Chelsea prediction is for Chelsea to cover the spread.

The marquee Premier League fixture of Matchday 23 sees Manchester City host Chelsea at the Etihad Stadium.

City throttled Ipswich Town 6-0 on Sunday, their second win in the last three matches. Given the margin of victory, City moved up to fourth in the league table.ย 

Chelsea avenged a 2-2 home draw against Bournemouth with three points against Wolves. The 3-1 win moved Chelsea up to fourth in the league table.ย 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs. Chelsea prediction.ย 

Man City vs. Chelsea Odds, Premier League

Man City vs. Chelsea Prediction

Based on Chelseaโ€™s success against Man City over the last two seasons and their strong underlying metrics, my Man City vs. Chelsea prediction is the Chelsea Spread (+0.5, -120).ย 

The Man City offense is humming at the moment, buoyed by the return of Kevin De Bruyne. That makes fading Pep Guardiolaโ€™s side so difficult.ย 

However, itโ€™s a nightmare spot for City. They travel to PSG for a midweek Champions League fixture on Wednesday and return home for a Saturday match against Chelsea.ย 

Over the last two seasons, City has struggled against the Blues.ย 

Sample three league meetings between these clubs and bettors will find City owns a +0.31 expected goal differential per 90 minutes and a -0.86 post-shot xGDiff per 90.ย 

Even if you throw out last yearโ€™s games, this is a City team that won 2-0 on Matchday 1. Yet, they posted a -0.24 xGDiff and +0.12 post-shot xGDiff, per fotmob.com.ย 

Home-field advantage will help those metrics, but thereโ€™s an argument Chelsea is the better team.ย 

Excluding their Monday fixture against Wolves, Chelsea owns a +0.58 xGDiff per 90 minutes and a +0.66 post-shot xGDiff per 90.ย 

City, meanwhile, owns a +0.45 xGDiff per 90 and a +0.56 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes.ย 

History also likes this spot taking Chelsea to cover.ย 

Since 2012, road dogs with a winning percentage between 40% and 57% are 24.5-5.5-3 (81.7%) ATS, assuming two factors:

  • The dogโ€™s previous margin in the last head-to-head meeting was -2
  • The dogโ€™s game number falls between 15 and 37

When those dogs are listed at +0.5, theyโ€™re 12-4 ATS. Just since 2021, those dogs are 11-3 ATS, including 9-2 ATS at +0.5.ย 

Pair those trends with Chelseaโ€™s rest edge, and bettors should trust the Blues as road dogs.

Premier League Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
EvertonArsenalApr. 57:30 a.m.Goodison Park
Crystal PalaceBrightonApr. 510 a.m.Selhurst Park
Ipswich TownWolvesApr. 510 a.m.Portman Road
West Ham UnitedBournemouthApr. 510 a.m.London Stadium
Aston VillaNottingham ForestApr. 512:30 p.m.Villa Park
FulhamLiverpoolApr. 69 a.m.Craven Cottage
BrentfordChelseaApr. 69 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
TottenhamSouthamptonApr. 69 a.m.Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Manchester UnitedManchester CityApr. 611:30 a.m.Old Trafford
Leicester CityNewcastle UnitedApr. 73 p.m.King Power Stadium

Premier League Against the Spread Records

TeamATS RecordATS%Home ATS RecordHome ATS%Road ATS RecordRoad ATS%
Arsenal11-13-646.7%4-7-440.0%7-6-253.3%
Aston Villa12-17-141.7%5-9-136.7%7-8-046.7%
Bournemouth17-12-158.3%7-8-046.7%10-4-170.0%
Brentford17-11-260.0%8-7-053.3%9-4-266.7%
Brighton & Hove Albion17-12-158.3%7-8-046.7%10-4-170.0%
Chelsea11-17-240.0%6-8-143.3%5-9-136.7%
Crystal Palace16-10-360.3%6-6-350.0%10-4-071.4%
Everton15-10-558.3%7-6-253.3%8-4-363.3%
Fulham17-10-361.7%7-8-046.7%9-3-370.0%
Ipswich Town12-16-243.3%4-11-026.7%8-5-260.0%
Leicester City13-16-145.0%5-10-033.3%8-6-156.7%
Liverpool15-13-253.3%6-7-246.7%9-6-060.0%
Manchester City9-21-030.0%4-11-026.7%5-10-033.3%
Manchester United12-14-446.7%6-7-246.7%6-7-246.7%
Newcastle United16-12-156.9%9-5-064.3%7-7-150.0%
Nottingham Forest20-10-066.7%10-5-066.7%10-5-066.7%
Southampton11-16-341.7%3-11-123.3%8-5-260.0%
Tottenham Hotspur11-18-138.3%5-9-136.7%6-9-040.0%
West Ham United15-14-151.7%5-9-136.7%10-5-066.7%
Wolverhampton Wanderers14-13-351.7%6-7-246.7%8-6-156.7%

Premier League Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Liverpool22-7-17343
Arsenal17-10-36130
Nottingham Forest17-6-75715
Chelsea15-7-85217
Manchester City15-6-95117
Newcastle United15-5-95010
Aston Villa13-9-848-1
Brighton12-12-6473
Fulham12-9-9454
Bournemouth12-8-104411
Brentford12-5-13414
Crystal Palace10-10-9403
Manchester United10-7-1337-4
Tottenham10-4-163411
Everton7-13-1034-5
West Ham9-7-1434-17
Wolves8-5-1729-17
Ipswich Town4-8-1820-33
Leicester City4-5-2117-42
Southampton2-4-2410-49

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.