- Man City is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Chelsea.
- Manchester City has won eight of its last nine home matches following a win.
- My Man City vs. Chelsea prediction is for Chelsea to cover the spread.
The marquee Premier League fixture of Matchday 23 sees Manchester City host Chelsea at the Etihad Stadium.
City throttled Ipswich Town 6-0 on Sunday, their second win in the last three matches. Given the margin of victory, City moved up to fourth in the league table.
Chelsea avenged a 2-2 home draw against Bournemouth with three points against Wolves. The 3-1 win moved Chelsea up to fourth in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs. Chelsea prediction.
Man City vs. Chelsea Odds, Premier League
Man City vs. Chelsea Prediction
Based on Chelsea’s success against Man City over the last two seasons and their strong underlying metrics, my Man City vs. Chelsea prediction is the Chelsea Spread (+0.5, -120).
The Man City offense is humming at the moment, buoyed by the return of Kevin De Bruyne. That makes fading Pep Guardiola’s side so difficult.
However, it’s a nightmare spot for City. They travel to PSG for a midweek Champions League fixture on Wednesday and return home for a Saturday match against Chelsea.
Over the last two seasons, City has struggled against the Blues.
Sample three league meetings between these clubs and bettors will find City owns a +0.31 expected goal differential per 90 minutes and a -0.86 post-shot xGDiff per 90.
Even if you throw out last year’s games, this is a City team that won 2-0 on Matchday 1. Yet, they posted a -0.24 xGDiff and +0.12 post-shot xGDiff, per fotmob.com.
Home-field advantage will help those metrics, but there’s an argument Chelsea is the better team.
Excluding their Monday fixture against Wolves, Chelsea owns a +0.58 xGDiff per 90 minutes and a +0.66 post-shot xGDiff per 90.
City, meanwhile, owns a +0.45 xGDiff per 90 and a +0.56 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes.
History also likes this spot taking Chelsea to cover.
Since 2012, road dogs with a winning percentage between 40% and 57% are 24.5-5.5-3 (81.7%) ATS, assuming two factors:
- The dog’s previous margin in the last head-to-head meeting was -2
- The dog’s game number falls between 15 and 37
When those dogs are listed at +0.5, they’re 12-4 ATS. Just since 2021, those dogs are 11-3 ATS, including 9-2 ATS at +0.5.
Pair those trends with Chelsea’s rest edge, and bettors should trust the Blues as road dogs.
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