- Man City is a 1.5-goal home favorite against Tottenham.
- Manchester City has won 19 straight league matches at home following a loss.
- My Manchester City vs. Tottenham prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
The marquee Premier League fixture of Matchday 12 pits Manchester City against Tottenham in Manchester.
City finds itself in a bit of a crisis. Pep Guardiola’s side has lost four in a row in all competitions, including a 2-1 defeat at Brighton before the break.
Tottenham aren’t in much better form. Following a convincing home win over Aston Villa, Ange Postecoglou’s side dropped all three points in a 2-1 loss to Ipswich Town.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs. Tottenham prediction.
Premier League Odds: Man City vs. Tottenham
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | +1.5 (-175) | 3.5 (-110) | +425 |
| Man City | -1.5 (+120) | 3.5 (-125) | -190 |
| Draw | +360 |
Premier League Betting: Man City vs. Tottenham Prediction
Based on City’s strong record off a loss and Tottenham’s defensive injuries, my Man City vs. Tottenham prediction is a SGP: Man City Moneyline & Under 5.5 Goals (-125).
The scoreline said City lost 2-1 at Brighton before the break, but the underlying metrics said City dominated the match.
With a less-than-full-strength lineup, City still managed to edge out the Seagulls 2.98-1.55 on post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.
After that match, Pep Guardiola went so far as to say City played well. Now, they may return as many as eight first-team players into the fold.
History tells us this is a great spot to back the hosts. Since 2012, home favorites between -245 and +112 with nine, 14 or 15 days between games are 96-38.
Here’s the kicker: When the opponent closed a market favorite in the previous game, those teams improved to 48-12 SU, including 19-6 since 2018.
Another historically profitable system says to bet City on Saturday.
Over the same period, favorites between -220 and -110 off a loss by one, three, or four goals are 60-22 SU, assuming two factors:
- The opponent’s previous game margin falls between -4 and -1
- The favorite’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting falls between +0 and +2
When those teams play at home: 46-17 SU, including 11 straight outright victories.
Another major concern for Tottenham is that central defender Micky van de Ven likely won’t play on Saturday.
Last season, Tottenham finished 1-1-4 (W-D-L) in road fixtures without the Dutch defender.
Included in that sample is a trip to City, which finished 3-3 but saw City win 2.25-1.18 on post-shot expected goals.
City is 18-0 at home off a loss under Guardiola, so I’ll take City to win on Saturday. For a pairing, use under 5.5 goals, which has cashed in every City match this year.
