- Manchester City is a -2.5 goal favorite against Bournemouth.
- City captured a win against Manchester United last week at Old Trafford.
- Bournemouth have yet to win away from home this season.
Ahead of this weekend’s Premier League slate, I’m set to provide a Manchester City vs. Bournemouth Prediction.
City dominated rivals Manchester United in their last outing. Pep Guardiola’s side captured a 3-0 win over their neighbors, but they still sit third in the table.
As for Bournemouth, they earned a home win against Burnley to end a three-match losing streak. However, they still sit only a point outside the drop zone.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Saturday’s encounter at the Etihad Stadium.
Manchester City vs. Bournemouth Odds
- Manchester City to Win: -800
- Bournemouth to Win: +2000
- Manchester City vs. Bournemouth Draw: +900
- The Manchester City vs. Bournemouth Over/Under is 3.5 Goals
Manchester City vs. Bournemouth Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Manchester City vs. Bournemouth is Manchester City Spread (-2.5, -115).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
This line is quite fishy, but oddsmakers are essentially telling bettors where to go.
Manchester City -2.5 goals is priced at -115. However, there are some correlative markets to suggest it should be higher.
Currently, over 3.5 goals is priced at -130, with both teams to score – “no” priced at -165. Additionally, Manchester City’s team total – 2.5 goals – is -190.
Those prices strike me as a bit odd. Sure Bournemouth could defy the odds and bag a goal, but the odds here tell me to lay the goals with Manchester City.
Even if you set those prices aside, there’s further evidence suggesting Manchester City will dominate at home.
This season, Bournemouth has a -1.26 xGDiff per 90 minutes away from home.
In a trip to Liverpool, the Cherries allowed three expected goals to a top team. They also generated 89% of their expected goal share AFTER going up a man.
Plus, in a home match against Arsenal – where Bournemouth have performed better – they posted a -1.3 non-penalty expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
They’ll also face a rested City side that recorded a +2.4 npxGDiff against Manchester United, a far better side than Bournemouth.
Add in City posted a +2.41 post-shot expected goal differential in two head-to-head meetings last season, and I’ll lay the goals at -135 or better.
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