- Manchester City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- City defeated United 3-0 at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture.
- Historical systems suggest United is unlikely to win at the Etihad.
It’s this weekend’s marquee Premier League match, and I’m here to offer a Manchester City vs. Manchester United prediction.
City produced a 6-2 midweek FA Cup win over Luton Town on the heels of a 1-0 win at Bournemouth last weekend.
As for United, they dropped all three points at home to Fulham last weekend after reeling off four consecutive league wins.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sunday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Manchester City vs. Manchester United
- Manchester City Moneyline: -350
- Manchester United Moneyline: +850
- Draw Moneyline: +500
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-105/-135)
EPL Prediction – Manchester City vs. Manchester United
Manchester City Spread (-1.5, -140)
United has looked terrible on the road against good competition in recent memory.
Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, United is a dismal 4-11 ATS away from home against sides with a win percentage higher than 45%, including 2-3 this season.
Just at Liverpool and Arsenal this season – the closest comparisons to City – United is 0-1-1 (W-D-L) with a -3.9 expected goal differential and a -2.3 post shot expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Plus, City matches a pair of historically profitable systems.
Since the 2017-18 season, home favorites with a win percentage north of 59% facing a side off a draw or loss as home favorites are 81.6% SU.
Moreover, rarely do underdogs notch points after receiving a beatdown in the previous meeting.
Since 2017-18, home favorites in games 20-39 that won by at least three goals in the previous meeting are 20-5 SU, assuming their win percentage is higher than 65%.
Based on those factors, City should unquestionably win this match. The key question: by how many goals?
If you change the former system from the moneyline to spread – sampling teams -2 or shorter – bettors will find those teams are 68% ATS, including 4-2 ATS this season.
When the opponent is coming off a loss, such teams are 64% ATS.
As a result, lay the goals with City on Sunday so long as it remains available at -145 or better.
Manchester City Form
Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 24 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W
Feb. 20 vs. Brentford: 1-0, W
Feb. 17 vs. Chelsea: 1-1, D
Feb. 13 at Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League
Manchester United Form
Feb. 24 vs. Fulham: 1-2, L
Feb. 18 at Luton Town: 2-1, W
Feb. 11 at Aston Villa: 2-1, W
Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W
Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Southampton | Manchester United | Sep. 14 | 7:30 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Ipswich Town | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Leicester City | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Fulham | West Ham United | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Liverpool | Nottingham Forest | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Anfield |
| Manchester City | Brentford | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Everton | Sep. 14 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Bournemouth | Chelsea | Sep. 14 | 3:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Tottenham | Arsenal | Sep. 15 | 9 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Newcastle United | Sep. 15 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
| Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
| Arsenal | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
| Newcastle United | 2-1-0 | 7 | 2 |
| Brentford | 2-0-1 | 6 | 1 |
| Aston Villa | 2-0-1 | 6 | 0 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 1-1-1 | 4 | 3 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
| Chelsea | 1-1-1 | 4 | 2 |
| Fulham | 1-1-1 | 4 | 0 |
| West Ham United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -1 |
| Manchester United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Leicester City | 0-1-2 | 1 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-1-2 | 1 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-1-2 | 1 | -5 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-2 | 1 | -6 |
| Southampton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -4 |
| Everton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -8 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Brentford | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 0-3-0 | .000 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
| Fulham | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
| Leicester City | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
| Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
| Newcastle United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Soccer Odds at BetMGM
Whether you’re a first-time bettor, casual fan, or longtime diehard, there are soccer odds for everyone at BetMGM.
Throughout the year, you can view online sports betting opportunities for the Premier League, World Cup, Champions League, and more events around the world.
If you don’t have a sportsbook account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome bonus. And check back for the best sportsbook promotions each day of the year.
