- Manchester City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- City defeated United 3-0 at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture.
- Historical systems suggest United is unlikely to win at the Etihad.
Itโs this weekend’s marquee Premier League match, and Iโm here to offer a Manchester City vs. Manchester United prediction.ย
City produced a 6-2 midweek FA Cup win over Luton Town on the heels of a 1-0 win at Bournemouth last weekend.ย
As for United, they dropped all three points at home to Fulham last weekend after reeling off four consecutive league wins.ย
Hereโs a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sundayโs fixture.ย
EPL Betting Odds – Manchester City vs. Manchester United
- Manchester City Moneyline: -350
- Manchester United Moneyline: +850
- Draw Moneyline: +500
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-105/-135)
EPL Prediction – Manchester City vs. Manchester United
Manchester City Spread (-1.5, -140)
United has looked terrible on the road against good competition in recent memory.ย
Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, United is a dismal 4-11 ATS away from home against sides with a win percentage higher than 45%, including 2-3 this season.ย
Just at Liverpool and Arsenal this season โ the closest comparisons to City โ United is 0-1-1 (W-D-L) with a -3.9 expected goal differential and a -2.3 post shot expected goal differential, per fbref.com.ย
Plus, City matches a pair of historically profitable systems.ย
Since the 2017-18 season, home favorites with a win percentage north of 59% facing a side off a draw or loss as home favorites are 81.6% SU.ย
Moreover, rarely do underdogs notch points after receiving a beatdown in the previous meeting.ย
Since 2017-18, home favorites in games 20-39 that won by at least three goals in the previous meeting are 20-5 SU, assuming their win percentage is higher than 65%.ย
Based on those factors, City should unquestionably win this match. The key question: by how many goals?
If you change the former system from the moneyline to spread โ sampling teams -2 or shorter โ bettors will find those teams are 68% ATS, including 4-2 ATS this season.ย
When the opponent is coming off a loss, such teams are 64% ATS.ย
As a result, lay the goals with City on Sunday so long as it remains available at -145 or better.ย
Manchester City Formย
Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 24 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W
Feb. 20 vs. Brentford: 1-0, W
Feb. 17 vs. Chelsea: 1-1, D
Feb. 13 at Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League
Manchester United Form
Feb. 24 vs. Fulham: 1-2, L
Feb. 18 at Luton Town: 2-1, W
Feb. 11 at Aston Villa: 2-1, W
Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W
Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Southampton | Manchester United | Sep. 14 | 7:30 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
Brighton & Hove Albion | Ipswich Town | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
Crystal Palace | Leicester City | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
Fulham | West Ham United | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Liverpool | Nottingham Forest | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Anfield |
Manchester City | Brentford | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Aston Villa | Everton | Sep. 14 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
Bournemouth | Chelsea | Sep. 14 | 3:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
Tottenham | Arsenal | Sep. 15 | 9 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Wolves | Newcastle United | Sep. 15 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
Arsenal | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
Newcastle United | 2-1-0 | 7 | 2 |
Brentford | 2-0-1 | 6 | 1 |
Aston Villa | 2-0-1 | 6 | 0 |
Bournemouth | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 1-1-1 | 4 | 3 |
Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
Chelsea | 1-1-1 | 4 | 2 |
Fulham | 1-1-1 | 4 | 0 |
West Ham United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -1 |
Manchester United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -3 |
Leicester City | 0-1-2 | 1 | -2 |
Crystal Palace | 0-1-2 | 1 | -3 |
Ipswich Town | 0-1-2 | 1 | -5 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-2 | 1 | -6 |
Southampton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -4 |
Everton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -8 |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Aston Villa | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Bournemouth | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Brentford | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Chelsea | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Crystal Palace | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Everton | 0-3-0 | .000 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Fulham | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
Ipswich Town | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Leicester City | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Newcastle United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Southampton | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
West Ham United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
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